Satellite Alliance and Wage Talks: Deutsche Telekom’s Dual Headwinds Dent a Raised Outlook

Deutsche Telekom raises 2026 EBITDA target to €47.5bn but shares fall as labor negotiations with ver.di intensify and technical indicators show weakness; analysts maintain buy ratings.

The chief growth engine of Deutsche Telekom, T?Mobile US, is doubling down on network innovation with a joint venture alongside AT&T and Verizon. The three largest American carriers are pooling resources to develop direct?to?device satellite technology — a push that targets persistent black spots in rural areas and bolsters emergency communications. For the Bonn?based parent, the move underscores the sustained importance of its US unit, yet the market response has been anything but enthusiastic.

Management raised its medium?term targets this week, forecasting adjusted EBITDA AL of around €47.5 billion by 2026 and free cash flow AL above €19.8 billion. That should have been a comforting signal, but the share price failed to catch a bid. In Friday trading the stock closed at €27.63 in one data feed and at €27.70 in another — representing declines of 0.58% and 0.32% respectively. Over the past twelve months the stock has lost roughly 15%, and it now sits almost 20% below its 52?week high of €34.25.

The cool reaction to the upgraded guidance is all the more striking given the contrasting backdrop of a swelling labour dispute. The fourth round of wage negotiations with ver.di is set for 26?27 May, and union demands remain stiff: a 6.6% pay increase, a €660 annual bonus for union members, a twelve?month contract term, and enhanced job?security guarantees related to digital restructuring. The talks cover around 60,000 employees, and strikes have already drawn more than 20,000 participants, with a rally in Potsdam alone mobilising 2,500 workers. For the first time, staff at subsidiaries including Deutsche Telekom Privatkunden?Vertrieb GmbH and T?Systems International GmbH joined solidarity walkouts, widening the industrial action. The company’s previously announced €2 billion share?buyback programme for 2026 adds political friction — unions are quick to argue that money for share repurchases signals room to pay more.

Analysts, however, remain largely untroubled by the labour noise. Deutsche Bank Research holds a “Buy” rating with a €42 price target, citing a calm first quarter, higher group targets, and robust free cash flow outside the US. Bernstein Research maintains “Outperform” with a €37 target, noting that the quarterly results landed within expectations. Neither has so far adjusted its stance because of the tariff negotiations.

The technical picture tells a more worrying story. The share is trading roughly 8% below its 50?day moving average of €30.16 and more than 5% under the 200?day line. A key support zone lies around the 52?week low of €26.45, just 4% below Friday’s close. To arrest the downtrend, the stock would need to reclaim and hold the 20?day line near €27.82. The relative strength index at 64 — neither overbought nor oversold — suggests there is upside room if buying interest returns.

A possible stabiliser for retail holders is the dividend. The company plans a distribution of €1.00 per share for the 2025 financial year, likely again tax?free from the contribution account. At the current price that yields roughly 3.6%, a cushion that becomes more attractive if the stock slides further.

All eyes now turn to the bargaining table on 26?27 May. If an improved employer offer materialises, the labour story may quickly lose market traction. Should the deadlock harden, the cost of social peace will come into sharper focus alongside the otherwise solid operational narrative.