SAP Stock Finds Temporary Relief in OpenAI’s Woes While a Broader Legal and Regulatory Storm Gathers

SAP shares jump 4% after OpenAI delays IPO, undermining AI-displacement fears; but antitrust suit, margin cuts, and weak buyback performance weigh on outlook.

A surprising rally lifted SAP’s shares by nearly 4% on Friday, snapping a slide that had dragged the stock to a 52-week low just a day earlier. The trigger came not from Walldorf but from California, where the New York Times reported that OpenAI is delaying its initial public offering until 2027 because of financial struggles. The news undermined a long-running bearish thesis that artificial intelligence would eventually displace traditional enterprise software, sending SAP and other so-called AI-vulnerable names sharply higher. Oracle, deeply tied to OpenAI’s infrastructure through a massive cloud contract, fell about 3% in contrast.

The relief rally, however, masks a far more complicated picture. On the same day, a federal judge in California allowed process-analytics firm Celonis to expand its pending antitrust lawsuit against SAP to include claims of trade-secret theft. Celonis alleges that SAP exploits its dominant position in the enterprise-resource-planning market to restrict customer data access, funnelling users toward its own Signavio software and away from rivals. The court rejected most of SAP’s motion to dismiss, and the company will now have to hand over internal documents on APIs, pricing, partner programs, and RISE contracts. Trial is set for December 7, 2026. SAP said parts of the suit were thrown out and reiterated its intention to defend itself.

Amid the litigation noise, SAP’s operational engine continues to hum. In the first quarter, cloud revenue climbed 27% on a currency-adjusted basis to just under €6 billion, while the cloud backlog expanded 20% to €21.9 billion. Full-year cloud revenue guidance remains unchanged at €25.8–€26.2 billion. Management also announced two bolt-on acquisitions in May: Dremio, a data-lakehouse specialist, and Prior Labs, an AI lab focused on tabular data — the latter backed by a €1 billion commitment over four years. The Dremio deal is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, Prior Labs in the second or third.

But the headwinds are piling up. Goldman Sachs trimmed its estimate for SAP’s second-half gross margin to 72.8% from 73.3%. A separate warning from Accenture, which cut its revenue forecast as clients slow large IT spending, has analysts watching for spillover effects on SAP’s order book. Meanwhile, the European Commission is reviewing a series of voluntary concessions from SAP — including greater flexibility in vendor choice and eliminating certain fees — that the company expects to have no material financial impact.

The €10 billion share-buyback programme, running through 2027, has so far repurchased roughly 16.3 million shares at an average price of €161.16 — well above the current €136.16 level, which sits just 4% above the 52-week low. Year to date, the stock has lost about 33%.

With the quiet period now in force until July 23, when second-quarter results are due, SAP’s management cannot comment on revenue or margins. The market will scrutinise the cloud backlog and gross margin for signs that the AI strategy is generating commercial traction. Analysts at Berenberg, who rate the stock a buy with a €215 target — implying massive upside — are largely ignoring the share price slump. RBC analyst Rishi Jaluria cautions against euphoria, noting that companies won’t replace their software with AI overnight. Nonetheless, the combination of a faded AI threat, a widened lawsuit, margin pressure, and a regulatory olive branch leaves SAP’s stock at a critical juncture. July 23 will be the first real test of whether its cloud momentum can withstand the mounting crosswinds.