SAP Stock Finds a Foothold as OpenAI’s Woes Dent the AI-Disruption Narrative

SAP shares jump 3.92% after OpenAI delays IPO to 2027, easing AI disruption fears. All eyes on Q2 earnings July 23 for cloud revenue and margin proof.

A weekend rally in SAP shares has given the German software giant some breathing room, but the real test arrives on July 23 when the company lifts its quiet period and reports second?quarter results. The stock closed Friday at €136.16, up 3.92% on the day, after a report in the New York Times revealed that OpenAI is pushing back its initial public offering to 2027 amid ongoing financial struggles.

The development undercuts a narrative that has weighed on enterprise?software stocks for months: the fear that generative AI will rapidly erode the relevance of traditional applications. OpenAI’s troubles suggest that the shift may be slower than feared, prompting a sharp rotation into names previously seen as most exposed. According to Raymond James analyst Adam Tindle, the strongest gainers on Friday were precisely those stocks the market had recently branded as vulnerable to AI?driven disruption. The move was less kind to infrastructure plays; Oracle, which is closely tied to OpenAI’s cloud needs, shed roughly 3%.

RBC analyst Rishi Jaluria cautioned against over?interpreting the rebound, noting that enterprises do not replace their software stacks overnight. “A wholesale displacement of established platforms is not what we are seeing in the field,” he said. Still, many market participants believe the worst of the sector’s gloom may now be past.

The reprieve comes after a brutal stretch for SAP’s shares. The stock has lost 32.6% since the start of 2026 and remains within a hair’s breadth of its 52?week low of €130.80. That low was tested earlier this month, and the current price still sits nearly 49% below the year’s high of €266. The pressure stems not from operational weakness but from a structural anxiety that classic enterprise software could lose relevance in the AI era — a fear that squeezed the entire sector after Oracle disclosed plans to invest up to $95 billion in AI infrastructure.

Operationally, however, SAP’s story is markedly different. In the first quarter, total revenue rose roughly 6% year on year to €9.56 billion, while cloud revenue jumped 27% to almost €6 billion. The operating margin climbed back to 30% for the first time in 13 quarters. For the full year, management projects cloud revenue between €25.8 billion and €26.2 billion, representing currency?adjusted growth of 23% to 25%.

The company entered a self?imposed quiet period on June 22, during which it has been barred from commenting on sales, margins, or the cloud business. That silence lifts at 22:05 Central European Time on July 23, when SAP releases its second?quarter and first?half figures, followed by an analyst conference an hour later. Investors will be paying especially close attention to the cloud order backlog and cloud gross margin, since a one?off factor that boosted first?quarter cloud growth will not recur in the second quarter. Strong numbers and a reaffirmed full?year outlook could shift sentiment decisively; a miss, by contrast, would likely bring the 52?week low back into focus.

SAP has also been leaning on its share?buyback programme as a signal of confidence. The current tranche, launched in February 2026, has a budget of up to €2.6 billion. So far the company has purchased roughly 16.3 million shares at an average price of €161.16 — well above the current market level — as part of a broader €10 billion repurchase plan that runs through the end of 2027.

Analysts remain largely constructive despite the share?price slide. UBS has a target of €205, Berenberg €215, and Bernstein Research sees fair value at €276 — more than double the latest closing price. Jefferies recently trimmed its target to €210 but kept a buy rating. For the stock to reclaim those levels, the July 23 report will need to show that the cloud engine is still firing on all cylinders, even as the AI?disruption threat begins to fade.