SAP’s Data Access Dispute Clouds a Pivotal Month for Shareholders

SAP shares near 52-week low despite strong Q1 results; user group backlash over API policy threatens AI ambitions ahead of key May events.

The software giant is heading into May with two major events that could determine whether its stock can shake off a brutal slide — but a brewing conflict over data access is threatening to undermine the very AI strategy investors are banking on.

SAP’s shares have tumbled roughly 29 percent since the start of the year, currently changing hands at €144.20. That puts the stock dangerously close to its 52-week low of €139.12 and a staggering 47 percent below the peak of €271.60 reached last year. The sell-off has persisted despite a first-quarter performance that, on the surface, looked robust.

Revenue climbed 6 percent to nearly €9.6 billion in the three months through March, while cloud revenue surged 27 percent and the cloud ERP suite jumped 30 percent. The cloud order backlog swelled to almost €22 billion, up a quarter on a currency-adjusted basis. Operating profit rose 24 percent to €2.9 billion. Yet the market has remained unmoved, weighed down by macroeconomic jitters, elevated energy costs, and a €408 million legal settlement that dented free cash flow.

A Fractious Relationship With Users

Just as SAP prepares to showcase its artificial intelligence ambitions, it finds itself at odds with the very customers it needs to win over. The German-speaking SAP user group, DSAG, has launched a sharp critique of the company’s updated application programming interface policy. Under the new rules, customers can only use interfaces within “SAP-confirmed architectures.”

DSAG chairman Jens Hungershausen warned the unclear guidelines risk blocking new customer projects. Market observers see a strong lock-in effect that would tie users even more tightly to the vendor. The implications for innovation are serious: artificial intelligence depends on freely flowing data streams, and restrictive API policies could hamper the deployment of efficient AI agents.

The timing could hardly be worse. SAP is counting on its AI assistant Joule to drive future revenue, and the planned acquisition of Reltio Inc. later this year is designed to break down siloed data structures. The AI assistant requires high-quality data from third-party sources to function effectively. Already, SAP handles a fifth of its support tickets fully automatically, and management wants to offer that automation level to customers through consumption-based pricing models.

Two Dates That Could Shift Sentiment

May 5 brings the virtual annual general meeting, where the supervisory board and executive board are proposing a dividend of €2.50 per share for 2025 — an increase of 15 cents, or 6.4 percent, from the prior year. Payment is scheduled for the third business day after the meeting. Shareholders will also vote on changes to the supervisory board structure, with René Obermann slated to take the chair next year.

Then from May 11 to 13, SAP holds its Sapphire & ASUG Annual Conference in Orlando. Investors are hungry for concrete details on how the company plans to commercialise its AI solutions and the transition to consumption-based pricing. On May 13, SAP Investor Relations will host a financial analyst conference featuring CEO Christian Klein, COO Sebastian Steinhaeuser, and CTO Philipp Herzig, with presentations, breakout sessions, and a Q&A.

Guidance Holds Despite Headwinds

For the full year, SAP is sticking to its forecast: cloud revenue between €25.8 billion and €26.2 billion, and non-IFRS operating profit between €11.9 billion and €12.3 billion, both at constant currencies. The company has cautioned, however, that the strong first quarter benefited from one-off effects and expects cloud growth to slow in the second quarter. Geopolitical risks remain an additional uncertainty.

Management is also holding firm on a free cash flow target of roughly €10 billion for the current year. Whether the stock can recover its lost ground will depend heavily on how convincingly SAP can articulate its AI monetisation story at Sapphire — and whether it can resolve the API dispute before it becomes a drag on customer adoption.