SAP's €100 Million AI Agent Fund Sparks Rally, Yet Overbought RSI Signals Risk of Pullback

SAP unveils €100M fund for AI agents at Sapphire Madrid, stock recovers 12% in a week but RSI at 92.7 signals caution. Cloud revenue jumps 27%.

The software giant used its Sapphire Madrid conference this week to double down on artificial intelligence, unveiling a €100 million fund to support partners in developing their own AI agents. The initiative, which rests on the SAP Knowledge Graph and over 50 specialized Joule assistants, is designed to automate manual processes across finance and HR. The announcement came as the event wrapped up on Thursday, with management pitching the vision of the "autonomous enterprise" to investors who have watched the stock tumble nearly 24% from its start-of-year level.

Despite the longer-term gloom, SAP shares have staged a sharp recovery in recent sessions. The stock closed Wednesday at €154.10, down 0.52% on the day, but the seven-day gain stands at a punchy 11.98%. The rebound was fueled in part by a rotation within the technology sector, with Dow Jones noting that software names are drawing fresh demand after the AI hype previously lifted chip and hardware stocks. Nemetschek and Atoss Software also climbed, while Infineon and Siemens Energy slid.

Chart technicians see a clear improvement in the short-term picture. XTB points out that the stock has reclaimed several moving averages, now trading 2.49% above the 50-day line at €150.35. That supports the case for a technical rebound. However, the broader trend remains firmly negative: the 200-day moving average sits at €194.18, and the 100-day line at €167.48, both well above current levels. The Relative Strength Index has jumped to 92.7, deep in overbought territory, warning that profit-taking could derail the rally at any moment.

Operationally, SAP's cloud transformation continues to deliver. Currency-adjusted cloud revenue jumped 27% in the first quarter to nearly €6 billion, while the cloud backlog hit almost €22 billion. The company confirmed its 2026 target for operating profit to exceed €10 billion. To strengthen its data foundation for AI, SAP acquired data-management firm Reltio in early May and plans to integrate Dremio in the third quarter, making it easier for clients to combine SAP and external data for automated workflows.

The contrast between strong operational metrics and a battered share price has not been lost on market observers. The RSI reading of nearly 90 in the primary article — or 92.7 in the more detailed technical analysis — reflects what some see as anticipatory optimism about monetizing the AI strategy. The stock has recovered enough to test resistance levels, but the gap to longer-term averages remains wide.

Management will face its next big test on July 23, when second-quarter results are due. Analysts will be looking for hard evidence that the new AI tools are translating into measurable revenue. For now, the Sapphire narrative has provided a supportive backdrop, but as the slight pullback on Wednesday suggests, the market is still weighing whether the software-sector rotation can sustain the recovery without fresh catalysts.

The short-term moving average at €150.35 now serves as a critical floor. A stable hold above that level would reinforce the rebound, while a break below would undermine the technical progress made in the past week — and remind investors that the long road back from a 42% annual loss is far from over.