SAP Maintains Dividend Payout Amid Significant Share Price Decline

Despite strong 2025 results and a new €10B buyback, SAP stock is down ~27% YTD. Shareholders to vote on dividend May 5, 2026, amid cloud forecast and AI transition concerns.

Despite reporting robust 2025 financial results and authorizing a new multi-billion euro share buyback, SAP's stock has faced substantial pressure in the markets, shedding approximately 27% of its value since the start of the year. In this context, the company's board has put forward a dividend proposal of €2.50 per share for shareholder approval. The key date for this decision is the Annual General Meeting scheduled for May 5, 2026, in Walldorf.

A Divergence Between Share Performance and Financial Health

The proposed shareholder return is grounded in the firm's 2025 annual performance. SAP reported a currency-adjusted 30% growth in its total cloud backlog and a 31% increase in its non-IFRS operating profit. Capitalizing on this strong footing, the management and supervisory boards also approved a share repurchase initiative worth up to €10 billion. This program commenced in February 2026 and is set to run through the end of 2027.

The equity's downward trajectory, however, tells a separate story. This trend was initiated by a cloud revenue forecast for 2026, issued in late January, that fell short of market expectations. After successively breaching support levels at €165 and €150, the share price touched a 12-month low by the end of March. In response, analysts at JPMorgan downgraded the stock to "Neutral," lowering their price target to €175. They cited competitive pressures and the ongoing business model transition toward cloud and AI solutions as primary concerns.

Key Dates for Investors

Shareholders should mark three critical events on their calendars for April and May:

• April 23, 2026: First-quarter 2026 results release (10:05 PM CET), followed by an analyst conference call (11:00 PM CET).
• May 5, 2026: Annual General Meeting, featuring the vote on the dividend distribution.
• May 8, 2026: The planned dividend payment date if approved.

The company is currently in a Quiet Period, limiting new financial disclosures until the Q1 report is published. Despite the recent sell-off, the consensus among market experts remains cautiously positive. A survey of 36 analysts points to an average expected earnings per share of €7.31 for the full year 2026, which would represent an increase of roughly 16% over the prior year.

Challenges in AI Monetization and Adoption

A significant strategic shift is adding to investor uncertainty. Starting in July 2026, SAP intends to move its AI services from a subscription-based model to a consumption-based pricing structure. This change exchanges predictable recurring revenue for usage-dependent income, a risk the market is currently evaluating.

Further compounding these concerns are revealing data from the 2026 DSAG Investment Report. Among the member companies surveyed that are already using AI in production, a substantial 77% rely on solutions from providers other than SAP. Only 3% utilize SAP's own AI tools, highlighting a challenge in capturing this growing segment of enterprise software spending.

The upcoming quarterly report on April 23rd is viewed as a potential inflection point. Evidence of stabilizing growth in the cloud backlog would provide a compelling counter-narrative to the prevailing negative sentiment. Conversely, disappointing figures could intensify pressure on a stock that already trades nearly 45% below its 52-week high.