SAP Ends EU Antitrust Dispute Without Fine as Geopolitical Shock and Earnings Expectations Weigh on Shares

SAP closes EU antitrust probe with binding commitments for on-premise customers, no penalties. Stock dips amid Middle East tensions; focus shifts to Q2 earnings on July 23.

SAP has closed a long-running European Commission antitrust probe without paying a cent in penalties, agreeing instead to a set of binding commitments that give on-premise software customers far more flexibility. The settlement, reached under an Article 9 procedure that carries no admission of wrongdoing, applies worldwide for a decade and will be monitored by an independent trustee. The company said it expects no material financial impact from the accord.

The resolution came during a turbulent week for the software giant. Earlier, an escalation in the Middle East — triggered by reports of US strikes on Iranian targets that ended a brief ceasefire — sent SAP shares tumbling. The stock lost 4.1% on Wednesday and another 1.2% on Thursday, closing at €136.36 at one point. Friday brought a modest rebound, with the share price ending the week at €138.50, up 0.13% on the day but still down 0.59% for the week. Since the start of the year, the stock has shed more than 31% of its value.

The antitrust case, designated AT.40823, centered on so-called lock-in effects in the maintenance business for existing customers. SAP's commitments allow clients to freely choose support providers by sub-area, split their ERP system across multiple vendors, and cancel unused licences — for instance, if headcount drops by more than 10% within two years, in the event of insolvency, or after a failed implementation. Re-entry fees are eliminated entirely, and refunds for missed maintenance are capped at six months or 50% of the fee. Non-compliance could expose SAP to fines of up to 10% of annual revenue, an amount one analyst pegged at roughly €3.7 billion.

The German user group DSAG welcomed the deal, but cautioned that CIOs must decide on their support strategy by 2027, as the new options could open the door to third-party providers such as Rimini Street. The urgency is underscored by the fact that only 39% of 35,000 ECC customers had acquired an S/4HANA licence by the end of the fourth quarter of 2024. Mainstream support for ECC ends in late 2027, with extended maintenance through 2030 costing an additional two percentage points.

While the antitrust resolution removed one overhang, another remains firmly in place: the dual pressures of geopolitics and the market's focus on SAP's next earnings report. The company will publish its second-quarter and first-half results on 23 July after market close. Until then, management is barred from providing any business updates, leaving analysts to guess at cloud order intake and operating margins. The stock is now trading nearly 5% below its 50-day moving average of €145.72 and more than 22% below its 200-day average of €178.70. Its 52-week low of €130.80, set on 25 June, sits just 5.9% below the current price, while the high of €265.75 from July 2025 is roughly 48% above — a gap that underscores the scale of the retreat.

Meanwhile, SAP continues to push its cloud narrative. Jewellery maker Swarovski, for instance, migrated to SAP Cloud ERP Private in April 2026 using a brownfield approach, supported by roughly 25,000 tests involving 600 participants and a 66-hour cutover window. Swarovski’s CIO, Lea Sonderegger — who won the Cloud Excellence special award at the “CIO of the Year 2025” ceremony in October — said the goal is to enable AI-powered demand forecasting and optimised inventory management.

For now, the outlook hinges on what the quarterly numbers reveal and whether the Middle East situation stabilises. If the shares break below €130.80, the already entrenched downtrend would gain further confirmation. A relative strength index of 45.6 sits in neutral territory, but the annualised 30-day volatility of 38.47% suggests the ride is far from smooth.