SAP Buyback and Dremio Deal Set the Stage for a Make-or-Break Earnings Report

SAP shares languish near €130.80 low as market awaits July 23 earnings; buyback signals undervaluation, cloud/AI push continues but volatility high.

SAP’s shares closed at €138.32 on Thursday, sitting just 5.75% above a 52-week low of €130.80 hit on June 25. The stock has shed 31.52% since the start of the year and stands 47.95% below its 12-month peak of €265.75 from July 17, 2025. With the second-quarter earnings report due on July 23, the market is waiting to see whether the company can reverse a slide that has wiped nearly half its value in a year.

The Walldorf-based software group is not standing still. A share buyback program with a volume of up to €2.6 billion is running through the end of July 2026, and management is using the depressed share price to retire more stock for the same money. The program is widely read as a signal that the board considers the equity undervalued, even as technical indicators point to continued downward pressure. The stock languishes 5.16% below its 50-day moving average of €145.84 and 22.79% below its 200-day moving average, while annualized volatility of 45.20% underscores the jitters among holders.

Operationally, SAP is pushing ahead with its cloud and artificial intelligence strategy. On July 6, the company closed the acquisition of Dremio, a data-specialist whose open-data-lakehouse platform will feed more external data into the AI assistant Joule without costly migrations. In the customer segment, energy provider TEAG is overhauling its entire IT estate with SAP cloud solutions, and a new alliance between SNP and Palantir is using artificial intelligence to accelerate system migrations for clients moving to the cloud.

All eyes are now on the July 23 earnings release. Analysts are forecasting second-quarter revenue of €9.85 billion, a gain of roughly 9% from a year earlier, and earnings per share of €1.76 — up about 20%. Equally important will be the development of the cloud backlog, as management has imposed strict cost discipline to fund heavy cloud-infrastructure spending. If the numbers show that discipline translating into better margins, investor confidence could begin to rebuild. If not, the stock may test its year-to-date low again, with the 52-week floor at €130.80 serving as the last line of defense.