SAP Approaches a Technical Crossroads as Cloud Earnings, Antitrust Progress, and Buyback Support Collide

SAP shares hover near key technical resistance at the 100-day moving average, with a softening EU antitrust case and a €10B buyback providing support, while earnings loom.

The stock closed at €160.86 on Friday, a hair’s breadth below the 100-day moving average of €161.37, and that narrow margin encapsulates the tension gripping SAP shares. On one side sits a short-term bounce that has delivered nearly 9% over the past month and widened the distance to the 50-day line (€148.99) to almost 8%. On the other side, the longer-term picture remains deeply wounded: the 200-day average of €189.61 lies 15% above the current price, and the stock still carries a year-to-date loss of 20.37%. The rally that pushed the shares off the 52-week low of €135.52 now faces its first real test.

That technical challenge arrives at a moment when the fundamental calendar is unusually dense. The most important regulatory overhang — the EU antitrust case — appears to be softening. Brussels has launched a market test of SAP’s proposed commitments, which include giving customers more freedom in choosing maintenance and support providers for on-premise ERP software, along with greater licence flexibility and the removal of certain fees. If competitors and customers raise no serious objections, the case could be closed without the theoretical penalty of up to 10% of annual turnover. SAP itself says the commitments will have no material financial impact.

Running in the background is a powerful mechanical support: the share buyback programme. In January SAP announced a new €10 billion repurchase plan running until the end of 2027, and the current tranche — activated on 5 February 2026 and running until at most 27 July 2026 — allows for up to €2.6 billion in purchases on the open market. That creates a steady stream of buying demand through the summer, irrespective of the technical or fundamental news flow.

The near-term technical setup is delicate. The relative strength index sits at 57.4, comfortably in neutral territory, suggesting the recovery has not become overheated. But annualised 30-day volatility tops 41%, a level that can easily generate false breakouts at key chart levels. A close just under the 100-day average is not yet a decisive signal in either direction, but the next few trading sessions will be telling. If the stock manages a clear close above that level, the focus will shift to higher resistance zones. Failure would bring the 50-day average back into play as the next support.

External catalysts are also stacking up. Later this week SAP will attend the Bank of America C-Suite TMT Conference in London, a networking event for institutional investors rather than a financial update. On the macro front, German industrial and foreign trade data are due, alongside an ECB interest-rate decision that could shift the yield expectations weighing on growth stocks. Separately, an EU package on technological sovereignty — with a focus on cloud, AI, and semiconductors — may colour sentiment around European software names.

The most important company-specific catalyst, however, is still to come. SAP will release second-quarter earnings on 23 July, followed by a conference call at 23:00. The bar is high after a strong Q1: the cloud order backlog jumped 20% to €21.9 billion, cloud revenue rose 19% to roughly €6.0 billion, and IFRS operating profit climbed 17% to €2.7 billion. On a non-IFRS basis, operating profit reached €2.9 billion, a 24% gain. Yet management has already warned that several short-term factors flattered the first quarter’s cloud numbers, so a deceleration in Q2 is expected. The market will scrutinise whether underlying demand is still accelerating or if the pace is genuinely slowing.

The full-year targets remain ambitious: cloud revenue of €25.8–26.2 billion, combined cloud and software revenue of €36.3–36.8 billion, non-IFRS operating profit of €11.9–12.3 billion, and free cash flow of around €10 billion. Investors will also look for signs that the long-term AI story is gaining traction. SAP has closed its acquisition of Reltio, which helps unify SAP and non-SAP data for AI applications, and the Dremio acquisition is pending regulatory approval, targeted for completion in Q3. On 10 June, CTO Philipp Herzig will appear at a fireside chat that is likely to offer clues on the AI strategy and customer-data readiness before the earnings test arrives.

The share has clawed back 2.85% in the past week alone, but the combination of a heavy technical barrier, a potentially game-changing antitrust resolution, a multi-billion-euro buyback, and a make-or-break earnings report makes the coming weeks unusually binary. The 100-day moving average at €161.37 is the first line that will reveal whether this is a genuine recovery or just another bear-market bounce.