Salesforce Prepares for a Make-or-Break Earnings Day as AI Bets Face Reality

Salesforce reports Q1 earnings May 27 with new 'Agentforce Apps' segment. Stock down 30% YTD. Analysts divided on AI revenue pace; guidance tight. $25B buyback, $35B backlog.

The software giant heads into its first-quarter report on 27 May with a stock that has lost nearly a third of its value since January — and a strategy that hinges on proving artificial intelligence can drive real revenue. Salesforce shares ended last week at €149.74, having clawed back 4.65% on Friday but still nursing a year-to-date decline of 30.84%. The 200-day moving average sits a full 22% above the current price, a chasm that underscores just how much ground the market wants the company to reclaim.

What makes this earnings release different is a change in how Salesforce reports its numbers. From the first quarter onward, the company has split its revenue into two segments: "Agentforce Apps" and everything else. The restructuring, announced on 1 May, aims to give investors a clearer view of how fast its AI-powered products are growing — and, more critically, whether that growth is translating into dollars.

Analysts on Wall Street are deeply divided over what the new structure will reveal. Citi recently cut its price target to $188, pointing to extended sales cycles for Agentforce. Customers are talking about the platform, the bank notes, but actual contract signings have been slow to materialise. Citi also expects softness in established products such as Tableau. On the other side, Morgan Stanley and TD Cowen remain bullish, with price targets of $287 and $250 respectively. JMP Securities is the most optimistic at $315. The average Street target of roughly $277 implies a massive upside from current levels — but the spread between the highest and lowest forecasts signals that the market has yet to agree on Salesforce's AI trajectory.

Management's own guidance for the quarter is tight. Revenue is expected in a range of $11.03bn to $11.08bn, with the analyst consensus sitting at $11.06bn. Earnings per share are pegged at $3.11 to $3.13, against a consensus of $3.12. In the prior quarter, Salesforce delivered $3.81 — the fifth straight beat — so the bar for a positive surprise feels higher than usual.

Even as the stock struggles, the company continues to lay groundwork for its AI future. A $25bn accelerated share buyback has been running since March, and the board authorised the programme in February. The backlog of contracted work has swelled to over $35bn. A new multi-year partnership with Pearson will train Salesforce's own workforce on AI skills, drawing on the education firm's expertise in competency data and certification.

Then there is the product roadmap. With the Summer 2026 release, due from 15 June, Salesforce plans to roll out more than 50 specialised AI agents for Slack, Microsoft Teams and IT service desks. These agents are designed to detect user intent and resolve employee requests autonomously. Tableau MCP will give AI agents direct access to the analytics engine, further embedding artificial intelligence into the company's core offerings.

But for the stock, the narrative on 27 May will be driven by numbers, not roadmaps. The gap between analyst optimism and market reality has widened to the point where only hard evidence of AI monetisation can close it. If Salesforce shows that Agentforce Apps are contributing measurably to the top line, the valuation discount — which has left the stock 42% below its level twelve months ago — may start to narrow. If it does not, the scepticism that has already shaved 30% off the share price this year will have little reason to fade.