Salesforce Caught Between Pentagon AI Deal and Hedge Fund Exit

Bridgewater dumped Salesforce shares worth $5.12B as Air Force awarded a $72M AI contract; stock fell 30% YTD amid costly AI pivot and rising margin concerns.

A $72 million contract with the US Air Force gave Salesforce a much-needed lift on Friday, yet the stock's underlying weakness remains exposed as legendary macro fund Bridgewater Associates dumped its entire position. The conflicting signals underscore the uncertainty surrounding the software giant's AI pivot.

Bridgewater, run by Ray Dalio, offloaded roughly 1.93 million shares during the first quarter of 2026, according to its latest 13F filing. The exit, valued at around $5.12 billion, reflects a broader shift toward AI hardware plays like Nvidia and TSMC. While more than 80% of Salesforce's shares still sit with institutional investors, the departure of a high-profile name adds to the debate over which AI winners deserve premium valuations.

The counterweight came from Washington. Salesforce secured a $72 million deal with the US Air Force to deploy "Missionforce National Security," a specialized AI solution built on its Agentforce platform and Government Cloud. The contract is small relative to Salesforce's quarterly revenue of $11.2 billion, but it serves as a crucial reference for public-sector customers with stringent security requirements.

The stock closed at €149.74 in Frankfurt on Friday, up 4.65% on the day. On the week, however, it still posted a 2.89% decline. Since the start of the year, shares have shed roughly 30%, with the 12-month drop standing at 42.39%. The technical picture remains bruised: the price sits 5.4% below its 50-day moving average of €158.28 and 22.13% below the 200-day line of €192.29. A relative strength index of 46.4 points to neither oversold nor overbought conditions.

Operationally, the company's numbers tell a more resilient story. In the final quarter of fiscal 2026, revenue climbed 12.1% year over year to $11.2 billion, while adjusted earnings per share hit $3.81, topping estimates. Free cash flow for the full year reached $14.4 billion, and the remaining performance obligation stood at $72 billion. The board has authorized a share buyback of up to $25 billion, and the quarterly dividend holds at $0.44 per share.

But the market's focus is trained on the cost of AI. CEO Marc Benioff expects to spend roughly $300 million on Anthropic tokens in 2026, primarily for AI-powered coding agents. This is part of a broader push to embed AI into every product layer, from Slack to core CRM. Starting this summer, new Slack customers will get AI features standard, though Salesforce is building a routing layer to keep costs in check: simpler tasks go to cheaper models, while complex reasoning tasks use premium models.

The efficiency drive is already visible in headcount. Support staff numbers have dropped from 9,000 to 5,000. Benioff himself has warned of a "SaaSpocalypse," a re-rating of software platforms after years of elevated multiples. The tension between investing heavily in AI infrastructure and maintaining margins is the central challenge for the stock.

Analysts remain broadly positive but increasingly cautious. The average price target is $278.82. Citigroup and DA Davidson have trimmed their expectations to the $188–200 range, citing softening corporate IT budgets. The consensus view hangs on whether Agentforce can scale beyond proof-of-concept deals.

Looking ahead, the first test comes with the fiscal-year-start guidance. Salesforce is targeting revenue of $11.03 billion to $11.08 billion. If that range is hit and more government AI contracts follow, the narrative gains credibility. Without that proof, Friday's bounce looks like little more than a relief rally in a damaged chart.