RWE Heads into AGM with Dividends, Buybacks, and a 30% EBITDA Surge on the Horizon

RWE shareholders face a busy AGM with a €1.5B buyback, rising dividend, and €35B US-focused investment plan, despite cautious analyst ratings amid a 30% stock rally.

RWE shareholders have plenty to digest ahead of Wednesday’s virtual annual general meeting. The German energy giant is serving up a mix of near-term earnings momentum, a beefed-up shareholder returns programme, and a long-range investment blueprint that leans heavily into the US market and the artificial intelligence boom.

Bernstein Research has weighed in with a “Market-Perform” rating and a €57 price target — a notable discount to the current share price of €61.10. Analyst Deepa Venkateswaran, updating her note on 28 April, expects first-quarter numbers due 13 May to show adjusted EBITDA climbing roughly 30% year-on-year, with adjusted earnings per share up around 38%. The cautious stance despite those bumper forecasts suggests the market has already priced in a strong start to the year.

The stock has certainly been on a tear. It has gained about 30% since January and has nearly doubled over the past twelve months. That rally has been fuelled by a sweeping transformation: renewables now contribute three times more to operating profit than lignite, even though a 22% drop in adjusted net income last year highlighted the volatility still baked into the business.

A €1.5 Billion Buyback and a Rising Dividend

Management released fresh buyback data just ahead of the AGM. In the third week of April alone, RWE repurchased roughly 352,000 of its own shares, bringing the current tranche to over seven million since December. The overall programme, worth €1.5 billion, is slated for completion by mid-year, with purchases executed steadily through the open market.

On the dividend front, the supervisory board has proposed a payout of €1.20 per share for the past financial year. If approved, the cash will land in accounts on 6 May. Looking ahead, the target for the current year has been set at €1.32 per share, with management committing to annual dividend growth of 10%.

€35 Billion in Investment, with the US Taking the Lion’s Share

The long-term strategy remains unchanged: RWE plans to invest €35 billion net by 2031, pushing its renewable and storage capacity to around 65 gigawatts. The biggest slice — €17 billion — is earmarked for the United States, where gas-fired plants will backstop the surging electricity demand from AI data centres. Germany gets €9 billion, mostly for gas and battery storage.

The company is also bidding to build up to 3 gigawatts of hydrogen-ready gas plants in Germany, positioning itself as a provider of firm capacity in the energy transition. Offshore wind is another pillar: in January 2026, RWE secured the rights to 6.9 gigawatts of capacity in UK waters.

Analyst Upgrades Pile Up

The bullish narrative has drawn support from several investment banks. Goldman Sachs lifted its price target from €63.50 to €68.00, keeping a “Buy” rating and citing RWE’s central role in electrification. Citigroup raised its target from €52.50 to €59.00, though it remains on “Neutral”. Deutsche Bank reaffirmed a “Buy” with a €63.00 target.

RWE’s own guidance points to adjusted operating profit rising to as much as €6.8 billion next year. The first-quarter update on 13 May will provide the first real test of whether that trajectory is on track. For now, the stage is set for a lively AGM — and a busy few weeks ahead.