Rocket Pad and Record Backlog: OHB Enters a Defining Stretch

OHB reports record €3.35B order book and strong Q1 earnings, but its Rocket Factory Augsburg subsidiary faces a high-risk maiden launch on July 1, with historic first-flight success below 30%.

The coming weeks will test OHB on two fronts simultaneously — the financial and the technological. While the Bremen-based space group heads into its virtual annual general meeting on June 8 with a record order book worth €3.35 billion, its rocket subsidiary Rocket Factory Augsburg is pressing ahead with a maiden launch of the RFA ONE vehicle, for which a launch window has been requested on July 1. The juxtaposition of operational strength and the inherently risky nature of a first flight makes this period a pivotal one for the company's investment narrative.

The Q1 numbers, released in late April, already laid out a solid foundation. Total output rose 15% year-on-year to €279.3 million, while adjusted EBITDA climbed 37% to €27.3 million. Earnings per share landed at €0.52. The unadjusted EBITDA figure came in at €25.7 million, with the operating result (EBIT) doubling to €15.2 million. That cash-flow performance underpins a record backlog that expanded 45% from a year earlier, with the Space Systems segment alone accounting for €2.68 billion, buoyed by ESA programs and swelling defense budgets. Management is guiding for full-year 2026 total output of €1.4 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11%.

Against this reassuring backdrop, the rocket story introduces a wild card. Rocket Factory Augsburg has officially applied for a July 1 launch slot from the SaxaVord spaceport in Scotland, where the RFA ONE vehicle is already being integrated in the assembly hall. The rocket is designed to carry up to 1,300 kilograms of small and microsatellites into polar and sun-synchronous orbits, and the maiden flight will deploy seven satellites from various organizations under coordination by the German Aerospace Center (DLR). Helix engine tests have been completed in Kiruna, Sweden. The roadmap targets series production by 2028 and eventually as many as 25 launches per year. Yet OHB itself cautions that first flights of new launch systems historically succeed less than 30% of the time — making a failure the statistically more probable outcome. And because Rocket Factory is consolidated at equity, any launch mishap would not directly hit the group's guidance; the venture remains a strategic option rather than a core earnings driver for now.

The thin free float of just 6% continues to exaggerate share price swings, even as the stock sits some 40% below its all-time high of €642, which was reached as recently as May 21. In the current month alone, the shares have lost more than 12%. That decline comes despite the positive news flow, including a €7.6 million sub-contract awarded by OHB Sweden to AAC Clyde Space for the European EPS-Sterna weather satellite program. The upcoming AGM will see shareholders vote on a proposed dividend of €0.60 per share and on new financing authorities to support growth in defense and large satellite constellations. Management's medium-term ambition is to achieve annual order intake of around €3 billion.

Beyond company-specific events, the broader space sector is drawing fresh attention. The long-anticipated initial public offering of SpaceX, expected around mid-June, is already acting as a valuation benchmark for European peers. OHB benefits from long-term institutional contracts such as Galileo and the Celeste mission, whose first satellites successfully launched in late March. The ILA Berlin air show, running from June 10 to 14, will feature OHB alongside Airbus, ArianeGroup, and DLR — a further platform to showcase its credentials.

Whether the RFA ONE flight succeeds or fails, the outcome will inevitably color how the market prices OHB's story going forward. The next concrete checkpoint for shareholders after the AGM and the launch will be the Q2 results on August 6. Between now and then, volatility looks likely to remain the default setting.