Rocket Lab Stock at a Crossroads: Oversold Signal Meets a $2.2 Billion Backlog

Rocket Lab shares drop 37% in 30 days to €59.30, but analysts see 73% upside amid $2.2B backlog, DoD contracts, and Iridium acquisition efforts.

The past month has delivered a sharp reality check for Rocket Lab investors. The stock has shed nearly 37% of its value in 30 trading days, closing Friday at €59.30 — a modest 0.68% bounce but still a world away from the 52-week high of €133.80 set in late May. That slide leaves the shares 55.68% below the peak and has pushed the relative strength index to 30.2, a level that historically signals oversold conditions and often precedes a technical reversal.

Yet the company’s operational engine is running at full throttle. Rocket Lab’s order backlog stands at roughly $2.2 billion, supported by a string of recent wins that include a $190 million contract from the US Department of Defense for 20 hypersonic HASTE test flights. The company touts a perfect success rate across all HASTE missions to date. Meanwhile, the proposed $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications would transform Rocket Lab from a pure-play launch provider into a vertically integrated space conglomerate, adding 2.55 million active subscribers and a global L-band satellite network for IoT, direct-to-device, and positioning services.

The bearish price action appears disconnected from the operational narrative. Analysts remain broadly bullish: Bank of America raised its price target to $110 last week, and Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its Overweight rating. The consensus target among sell-side analysts sits at $116.57, implying roughly 73% upside from the stock’s current level of $67.35 (approximately €59.30 at recent exchange rates). Both houses cite Rocket Lab’s vertical integration and growing share of sensitive government launch contracts as key drivers.

Prediction markets, however, tell a different story. On Polymarket, traders assign an 88% probability that the stock will fall to $64 and a 64.5% chance of a drop to $60, while only 5.2% of bets foresee a recovery to $108. The skepticism is reinforced by a wave of insider sales, though such transactions are often routine and not necessarily indicative of corporate sentiment.

The divergence between Wall Street’s optimism and the market’s short-term pessimism has become the defining feature of Rocket Lab’s current state. The company posted first-quarter revenue of $200.35 million — up 63.5% year-over-year — with a GAAP loss of $0.07 per share. For the second quarter, management guided for revenue between $225 million and $240 million and gross margins of 38% to 40%. The next major catalyst arrives on August 6, when Rocket Lab reports Q2 earnings after the close. Investors will be watching the backlog figure closely: it has already swelled to around $2.2 billion on the back of numerous first-half contract wins, and any further expansion could undercut the argument that the stock’s decline is justified.

Operationally, the launch schedule remains packed. Rocket Lab is preparing two missions from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand later this month. One will test new cryogenic fluid management techniques for Eta Space and NASA’s Tipping-Point program under the LOXSAT-1 payload. The other will deploy the eleventh StriX radar satellite for Japanese Earth-observation firm Synspective, adding to a launch cadence that has already reached 12 missions in 2025. In June, the company executed the Victus-Haze mission for the US Space Force within 17 hours of notification, a record under the TacRS rapid-response program.

The new Neutron rocket, designed to compete in the medium-lift segment, remains on track for a first flight in the fourth quarter. CEO Peter Beck described Rocket Lab’s position as “strong for growth” after the Q1 results, a sentiment that the stock price has yet to reflect. Whether the upcoming earnings report can bridge the gap between fundamental momentum and market sentiment — and turn the oversold RSI signal into a genuine reversal — is the question now facing shareholders.