Rocket Lab’s Revenue Hits New Peaks, but the Stock Can’t Catch a Break

Rocket Lab posts record revenue and soaring backlog, yet shares plunge 28% amid high valuation and Neutron delays. Analysts remain bullish.

The numbers coming out of Rocket Lab read like a growth investor’s dream: record quarterly revenue, a backlog swelling past $1.8 billion, and full-year revenue guidance pointing to over $900 million. Yet on Wednesday, the stock changed hands at €68.00 — down another 1.6% on the day and nearly 28% over the past month. That gulf between operational momentum and market performance has left even seasoned holders scratching their heads.

The pain has been concentrated and brutal. Over six consecutive trading days ending Tuesday, Rocket Lab shares shed 23.6% of their value, wiping roughly €14 billion in market capitalisation. The broader S&P 500 barely blinked, edging up 0.4% in the same window. By Wednesday’s close, the market cap had settled at about €44.4 billion. The slide was unequivocally company-specific.

Record Results, but at a Cost

Rocket Lab’s first half of 2026 was one for the history books. The stock surged 46% in that period — four times the S&P 500’s return. Fourth-quarter revenue jumped 36% year-on-year to $180 million, while the operating loss held steady at $53 million. More tellingly, the order book exploded 73% to $1.85 billion, providing multi-year visibility.

For the second quarter, management projects revenue of roughly $233 million at the midpoint, representing 61% growth from a year earlier. The figures are due in early August. Chief executive Peter Beck described the recent quarter as “phenomenal,” pointing to record launches and a flood of new contracts.

But that growth comes with a hefty price tag. The stock trades at 72.2 times trailing sales — more than 20 times the S&P 500’s median multiple. Operating margins remain deeply negative at minus 33.2%, versus the index’s positive 18.4%. The market is effectively paying a premium for a narrative that has yet to translate into profitability.

Neutron Takes Centre Stage — and Stays There

All eyes remain fixed on the Neutron rocket, Rocket Lab’s larger, reusable vehicle. After a setback during tank testing earlier this year, the company now targets the first launch in the fourth quarter of 2026 — later than initially planned. With Neutron seen as the key to hitting long-term financial targets, any further delays could test investor patience.

Until Neutron flies, the business rests on two pillars: Launch Services, which generated $63.7 million in first-quarter revenue thanks to the Electron rocket and hypersonic test vehicles, and Space Systems, the satellite-and-components arm that brought in $136.7 million in the same period. The Iridium acquisition — an $8 billion deal that positions Rocket Lab as a full-service space provider from launch to in-orbit operations — is awaiting regulatory clearance and adds another layer of strategic transformation.

Wall Street Stays the Course

Despite the technical damage, sell-side analysts have not flinched. Of 16 analysts tracked by S&P Global, 81% rate the stock a buy or strong buy; none recommend selling. The average price target stands at roughly $117, implying upside of about 61% from Tuesday’s close. B of A Securities reaffirmed a $115 target on June 30, projecting a 49.4% gain over 12 months.

The options market, however, is pricing in continued turbulence. Implied volatility sits at 91, in the 71st percentile of its 52-week range, while the annualised 30-day volatility is a staggering 95.4%. The relative strength index of 36.2 signals oversold conditions, but the stock’s high beta means any recovery could be equally volatile.

Technical Levels in Focus

At €68.00, Rocket Lab now sits 49% below its 52-week high of €133.80, reached on May 27. It is also trading well under its 50-day moving average of €94.44 and its 100-day average of €78.57. A slender lifeline remains: the 200-day average at €67.31, which held on Wednesday and could provide near-term support. A break below that level would leave the stock exposed to a slide back toward the 52-week low of €32.60.

The divergence between a company accelerating on all operational fronts and a stock caught in a sector-wide rotation away from high-volatility growth names is unlikely to resolve overnight. With the Iridium deal pending regulatory sign-off and Neutron’s first flight now pushed to the final quarter of the year, the next major catalysts — the August earnings report and key test milestones — will determine whether the current floor holds or gives way.