Rocket Lab’s Record Contract Haul Meets a Market That’s Yet to Be Convinced

Rocket Lab's stock remains 54% below its peak despite a record quarter of launch contracts and a $266M Space Force award, as analysts split on valuation and execution risks.

Rocket Lab has booked more launch contracts in a single quarter than it flew in all of 2025, yet its stock remains more than 50% below its spring peak — a disconnect that underscores just how much the company’s near-term fortunes hinge on execution rather than order flow.

The space contractor’s shares edged up 0.91% to $69.75 on Wednesday, extending a seven-day winning streak to 3.56%. The modest gains came after the US Space Systems Command awarded Rocket Lab a $266 million contract for 12 suborbital launches of its Electron rocket, with options for six additional missions. The work, to be conducted from the Pacific Spaceport Complex in Alaska, runs through December 2028 and builds on a $190 million award the company secured earlier this year.

Stifel analyst Erik Rasmussen called the deal a “strong validation of HASTE’s operational capability,” referring to the hypersonic testbed version of Electron. The contract arrives as the US military accelerates its hypersonic weapons development, and it further cements Rocket Lab’s standing among the seven vendors selected for the Space Force’s NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 program, a procurement vehicle with a total addressable value of $17 billion.

Yet the analyst community remains divided on valuation. Piper Sandler initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and an $83 price target, arguing that while Electron holds an edge over SpaceX’s Falcon 9 for smaller payloads, the real growth story lies with the larger, reusable Neutron rocket. The bank warned that Rocket Lab trades at a premium to SpaceX and that its shares are likely to track the Elon Musk-led company’s post-IPO trajectory. Piper Sandler prefers AST SpaceMobile in the space sector, citing a “more palatable valuation” and clearer earnings visibility.

Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag takes a different view, maintaining an Overweight rating and a $105 base-case price target. She sees the acquisition of satellite operator Iridium as expanding Rocket Lab’s addressable market into connectivity services, positioning the company as a vertically integrated space platform. On July 8, Morgan Stanley raised its bull-case target from $185 to $293. The broader consensus leans positive: 13 buy ratings against four holds, translating to a Strong Buy on average.

Retail investors have responded with cautious optimism. On Stocktwits, sentiment remained bullish over the past 24 hours amid elevated message volume. In a poll of more than 300 users, 43% said they would buy after the contract win, while 19% planned to hold their positions. The options market had already priced in heightened expectations: the put/call ratio over the past 10 trading days stood at 3.40, a reading in the 96th percentile of its annual range.

The technical picture, however, remains strained. Despite the week’s recovery, the stock still trades roughly 54% below its 52-week high of $151, reached on May 27. The 14-day relative strength index of 34.1 had signaled oversold conditions before this week’s bounce, and the annualized 30-day volatility of over 93% reflects how sharply the shares continue to swing on news flow. A post-IPO sell-off in SpaceX shares, a risk-off tone in the broader market, and notable insider selling have all weighed on Rocket Lab since late spring. Over the past 12 months, the stock is still up nearly 42%.

CEO Peter Beck recently reaffirmed the timeline for Neutron, the company’s next-generation rocket: “We want to get Neutron to the pad and launch by the end of the year.” The vehicle, which has suffered hardware setbacks including the loss of flight-intended components, is now targeting its maiden flight for the fourth quarter of 2026. While Neutron development continues in parallel, the Electron business is running at full throttle.

In the first quarter of 2026 alone, Rocket Lab signed 36 new launch contracts — 31 for Electron and HASTE, and five for Neutron. That single quarter surpassed the 21 missions the company flew in all of 2025. The combined backlog for both rockets now exceeds 70 missions. The company also passed the System Requirements Review for the Space Development Agency’s Tracking Layer Tranche 3, a missile-warning and tracking system. Together with an earlier award from the Transport Layer Beta Tranche 2, Rocket Lab’s SDA contract volume now exceeds $1.3 billion.

All eyes now turn to August 10, when Rocket Lab reports second-quarter results after US market close. The earnings call, scheduled for 2 p.m. Pacific time, will offer the first detailed look at how quickly the Iridium integration, the defense contract buildup, and the Neutron timeline are translating into revenue and backlog growth. For a stock that has lost nearly half its value since May, the numbers will need to speak louder than the contract announcements.