Rocket Lab's Neutron Countdown Begins as ARK Exits and Analysts Raise Targets

ARK Invest trims $9.6M in Rocket Lab stock despite record launches and a $1.85B backlog, as investors eye Neutron rocket debut and Q1 earnings.

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest has trimmed its exposure to Rocket Lab USA, offloading roughly $9.6 million in shares during the final days of April. The selling pressure sent the stock to a Friday close of $79.68, capping a weekly decline of about 11%. Yet the broader picture tells a different story: the shares remain up more than 250% year-to-date, and the pullback looks more like profit-taking than a fundamental shift in sentiment.

The selloff came despite an impressive operational display. Rocket Lab launched two missions within 48 hours — a feat that would normally buoy any aerospace stock. On April 22, the company flew the "Bubbles" mission from Wallops Island, Virginia, using the HASTE variant of its Electron rocket for the U.S. Department of Defense. Less than a day later, "Kakushin Rising" lifted off from the company's New Zealand pad, carrying a prototype antenna for the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) that unfolds to 25 times its compressed size once in orbit. It marked the company's eighth successful launch of 2026.

The disconnect between operational momentum and share price performance is partly explained by rising short interest and the sheer magnitude of the year's rally. With the stock having gained 264% over the past 12 months, some investors are locking in gains ahead of a critical catalyst: the first flight of the Neutron rocket.

Rocket Lab has formally applied for a launch license for Neutron, with the window opening between July and December of this year. The medium-lift vehicle, capable of delivering up to 13,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit, represents a step change for the company — vaulting it into a far more lucrative segment of the launch market. The secondary article notes the first flight is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026, with progress on the Archimedes engine being closely watched by investors as a potential trigger for a re-rating.

The company's order book provides a solid foundation. At the end of 2025, the backlog stood at a record $1.85 billion, up 73% year-over-year. That pipeline supports the revenue guidance of up to $200 million for the first quarter, which management will report after the market closes on May 7.

Analyst sentiment remains broadly constructive, though the range of price targets reflects uncertainty about the timing of Neutron's debut. Stifel leads the bulls with a $105 price target and a buy rating, arguing Rocket Lab could reach profitability as early as 2027. Roth raised its target to $100, citing 20% annual growth in the Electron program. Citizens JMP upgraded the stock to "Outperform" with an $85 target, while Wells Fargo initiated coverage with a neutral rating and a $60 price objective.

Technically, the stock remains well above its 200-day moving average of roughly $63, with the next support zone around $75. The coming weeks will bring clarity on two fronts: the May 7 earnings report will provide fresh data on margins and cash burn, while regulatory approval for Neutron will determine whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory into a new, higher-margin market segment.