Rocket Lab's First Positive EBITDA Marks Inflection Point as Revenue Surges 64%

Rocket Lab expects first positive adjusted EBITDA of ~$23M, driving stock to new highs. Revenue surged 63% to $200M, backlog doubled to $2.2B, and analysts raised targets.

Rocket Lab has crossed a threshold that changes how the market values the company. For the first time, management expects to report positive adjusted EBITDA — roughly $23 million — in the current quarter. That forecast alone has reshaped analyst models and sent the stock to fresh highs.

The shares jumped 16% on Monday to $122.39, touching a new 52-week peak, after already surging more than 30% the prior week when strong results were released. Year to date, the stock has climbed 61%, and over the past twelve months the gain stands at 476%. The rally now has a fundamental anchor: profitability.

Record Revenue and a Doubled Order Book

Revenue in the fiscal first quarter hit $200.3 million, up 63.5% from a year ago and ahead of the $190.9 million consensus. Space Systems contributed $136.7 million, while Launch Services added $63.7 million despite fewer flights than the prior quarter.

The backlog tells an even more dramatic story. Total contracted orders reached $2.2 billion, more than double the level a year earlier. Rocket Lab signed more launch agreements in the single quarter than it did in all of the previous fiscal year, including the largest launch contract in company history with a confidential customer.

Gross margin on a non-GAAP basis hit 43%, helped by a favorable product mix and better absorption of fixed costs in the launch business.

Wall Street Reacts With Higher Targets

Several investment banks quickly raised their price targets after the results and the EBITDA guidance.

• Needham lifted its target from $95 to $120, maintaining a Buy rating.
• CFRA increased its target to $100.
• Cantor Fitzgerald moved from $85 to $96, staying at Overweight.
• Citizens set a new target of $95, up from $85.

Cantor noted that Rocket Lab's operating experience across the Electron, Haste, and Neutron programs gives it an edge over younger space entrants. Needham pointed to the expanding launch business and space systems as key drivers.

Neutron Progress and Vertical Integration

The medium-term valuation depends heavily on the Neutron rocket, which can carry up to 15 tonnes — roughly 40 times the capacity of Electron. A successful stage separation test has been completed, and the Archimedes engine previously passed a major test firing. CEO Peter Beck targets the first flight for end of 2026.

To strengthen its in-house capabilities, Rocket Lab last week agreed to acquire Motiv Space Systems, a robotics specialist whose technology has been used in Mars missions. The deal is expected to close in the current quarter.

Beyond Neutron, the company secured several defense-related contracts. One confidential multi-launch deal runs through 2029. The US Department of Defense has ordered 20 hypersonic test flights, and Rocket Lab is partnering with RTX on space-based interceptors.

A Pivotal Quarter Ahead

For the current quarter, management guided revenue between $225 million and $240 million. The adjusted EBITDA forecast of roughly $23 million marks a sharp turnaround from the $15.1 million loss analysts had expected.

If Rocket Lab delivers on both the revenue range and the first positive EBITDA, the rally will gain operational validation. A miss, however, could quickly test the premium that investors have already built into the stock.

The broader space sector is drawing increasing attention. SpaceX is reportedly planning an IPO in summer 2026. With a market capitalisation of around $61 billion, Rocket Lab is viewed by analysts as the primary benchmark for that market, and positioning ahead of the listing has already begun.

For now, Rocket Lab's narrative has shifted from growth at any cost to growth with demonstrable profitability — a shift that has forced the entire market to reassess the stock.