Rocket Lab’s $266 Million HASTE Contract Lifts Shares, But Neutron Delays Still Cast a Long Shadow

Rocket Lab has secured the largest single launch contract in its history, a $266 million fixed-price award from the U.S. Space Systems Command for twelve suborbital missions, with an option for six more. The deal, which runs through December 31, 2028, immediately committed $112 million from fiscal 2025 funds and came after a competitive bidding process involving three companies. The missions will be flown from the Pacific Spaceport Complex on Kodiak Island, Alaska, almost certainly using the HASTE rocket — a modified Electron variant capable of carrying up to 700 kilograms at speeds exceeding Mach 20.

The stock responded with a 4.69% gain on Wednesday, closing at $72.36 after opening the week at $69.12. Yet the bounce does little to mask the damage of recent weeks: the shares remain 52% below their 52-week high of $151.00, reached on May 27. That sell-off was triggered by a sector-wide rotation away from space stocks and compounded by Rocket Lab’s disclosure that the first flight of its next-generation Neutron rocket had been pushed to the fourth quarter of 2026 following a tank-test defect.

Options Market Signals Ambition, Short Sellers Circulate

Despite the price weakness, speculative interest is running hot. Schaeffer’s Investment Research notes a put/call volume ratio of 3.40 over ten trading days, placing it in the 96th percentile of historical readings — a metric that typically signals aggressive call buying from traders betting on a rebound. At the same time, short interest has climbed 34.5% to 7.2% of the float, indicating a growing cohort betting against the stock. The divergence underscores the tension between Rocket Lab’s operational momentum and its near-term valuation challenges.

Wall Street remains largely constructive. Stifel reiterated its buy rating, while Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag maintained an overweight call with a $105 price target. Piper Sandler initiated coverage with a neutral stance, citing valuation concerns. The consensus median price target sits near $114, with a majority of analysts rating the stock a “Strong Buy.”

Backlog Growth and the Iridium Overhang

Rocket Lab’s operational trajectory remains robust. First-quarter 2026 revenue hit $200.3 million, up 63.5% year-over-year, while the backlog swelled to $2.2 billion after 31 new launch contracts were signed during the quarter. The new Space Systems Command award alone represents a double-digit percentage of that backlog — more than a single quarter’s revenue. Simply Wall St estimates the stock is undervalued by roughly 18% at current levels, with a fair value of $85.

The company is simultaneously pursuing an $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications, expected to close by mid-2027, which would combine Rocket Lab’s launch capabilities with Iridium’s satellite communications and positioning services. Iridium recently completed its own $366.7 million purchase of Aireon LLC, which management says will add $100 million in annual service revenue. Several analysts flag the Iridium deal as a financing risk if market conditions deteriorate further.

A Broader Military Push and NASA’s Vote of Confidence

The Space Systems Command contract fits into a much larger expansion of U.S. Space Force procurement. The NSSL framework agreement has been boosted from $5.6 billion to $17 billion, with a total potential value of up to $30 billion for launch services. The program splits into a risk-tolerant “Lane 1” for commercial providers like Rocket Lab, Relativity Space, and Impulse Space, and a “Lane 2” for strategic payloads currently reserved for SpaceX and ULA. Blue Origin recently secured the first award under this expanded structure.

On the civil side, NASA selected Rocket Lab in June for two science missions: PolSIR, which will study ice clouds, and TSIS-2, measuring solar energy inputs. Those launches are scheduled from 2027 onward and carry a combined contract value of roughly $300 million.

What Investors Are Watching Next

All eyes are now on August 10, 2026, when Rocket Lab is scheduled to report second-quarter results. After a strong Q1 and the latest blockbuster defense award, the market will be looking for updates on backlog growth, cash burn, and — most critically — any revised timeline for the delayed Neutron first flight. The company also recently acquired Motiv Space Systems in May, adding to a growing list of capital commitments that will test investor patience if the broader market rotation continues.