Rocket Lab Caught in SpaceX’s Wake: Index Inclusion Looms as IPO Rotation Deepens

Rocket Lab shares fell 10.6% as institutional cash rotated into SpaceX's IPO, but its June 22 Nasdaq-100 inclusion, record revenue of $200.3M, and strong backlog provide a floor.

The long-awaited SpaceX public listing has reordered the landscape for space stocks, and Rocket Lab found itself on the wrong side of the rotation Friday. Shares of the satellite launch specialist slid 10.6% to €88.70 as institutional cash migrated en masse toward the newly minted Elon Musk giant. SpaceX’s first-day pop of 19.2% — which lifted its valuation to roughly $2.1 trillion — triggered what analysts describe as a textbook sector rebalancing: Virgin Galactic cratered 31.8%, Intuitive Machines shed 13.1%, and Rocket Lab’s double-digit loss was actually the more resilient showing among the group.

But a structural catalyst is already on the calendar. On June 22, Rocket Lab officially joins the Nasdaq-100 — a milestone that forces any passive fund tracking the index to accumulate the stock irrespective of current sentiment. The inclusion places the company alongside Astera Labs and CoreWeave among the 100 biggest non-financial names on the exchange, and signals to the market that Rocket Lab has outgrown its “pure space niche” label. That mechanical buying pressure should provide a floor, even as the hangover from the SpaceX debut persists.

Away from the noise of the IPO rotation, the underlying business continues to fire on all cylinders. First-quarter revenue hit a record $200.3 million, up 63.5% year over year, while the backlog swelled to $2.2 billion — also an all-time high. The acquisition of Motiv Space Systems has bolstered Rocket Lab’s robotics and satellite capabilities, and a new $30 million contract with Anduril locks in hypersonic testing revenue. Management sees second-quarter sales landing between $225 million and $240 million. With more than 70 missions now booked through 2029, the launch manifest is the fullest it has ever been.

Technically, the stock is holding just above its 50-day moving average of €87.42 — a level that has become a critical line of defense. The relative strength index sits at 43.2, brushing against oversold territory. But the pullback has been steep: from the all-time high of €133.80 reached in late May, Rocket Lab has now given up roughly 34%. The weekly loss amounts to about 7%, and traders are watching whether the price can stay above €80 ahead of the index rebalancing on June 22. Should that level hold, the forced ETF buying should kick in and provide near-term stabilization.

Over a longer horizon, the fundamentals argue that the SpaceX IPO may ultimately prove a net positive for the sector. The listing of the industry’s dominant player tends to draw fresh capital into space equities, and Rocket Lab — with its deep contract backlog, growing revenue base, and the upcoming debut of its Neutron rocket slated for late 2026 — stands to benefit. Year to date, the stock is still up roughly 36%, and on a 12-month basis the gain approaches 290%. The near-term pain is a rotation, not a repudiation of the business. The real test will come when Neutron lifts off later this year.