Rocket Lab Catches Two Headwinds — ARK Profit-Taking and a SpaceX Rotation — Even as Nasdaq-100 Entry and Record Backlog Offer Support

Shares fall 10.8% in a day, down 18% monthly, pressured by ARK Invest trimming and rotation to SpaceX; revenue up 63.5% but rich valuation amplifies selling.

Rocket Lab’s stock is taking a beating from two distinct corners of the market, and neither has anything to do with the company’s operational performance. Shares closed Friday at $102.39, down 10.79% on the day and roughly 18% over the past month, as investors digested a double dose of portfolio rebalancing: Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest trimmed its stake, while a wave of capital rotated toward the freshly listed SpaceX.

ARK sold roughly 51,000 Rocket Lab shares worth about $5.8 million across two ETFs — the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF and the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF. The move was part of a broader reshuffling that also affected Tesla, Roku and AMD, and it came alongside ARK’s purchase of more than three million SpaceX shares across four funds. The message is less about Rocket Lab’s prospects and more about sector allocation, but for a stock already under pressure, the timing amplified the noise.

The SpaceX factor added a heavier weight. The much-anticipated IPO of the industry giant triggered a broad rotation out of established publicly traded space names and into the newly listed leader. Rocket Lab, despite its own inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index — a milestone that forces passive funds tracking the index to buy the stock — saw the celebratory tailwind evaporate in the face of the larger capital shift. The Nasdaq-100 entry gives Rocket Lab visibility among more than 200 investment products with over $800 billion in assets under management, but systematic buying may take time to materialise as the index rebalancing completes.

Operationally, the company remains on a strong footing. First-quarter revenue hit $200.35 million, a 63.5% jump year-over-year, while the order backlog swelled past $2.2 billion after sequential growth of more than 20%. Rocket Lab now counts over 70 contracted missions in its launch manifest, and the business extends well beyond rockets into satellite systems, defence contracts and components for commercial constellations. The challenge is valuation: after a near-286% rally over twelve months, the stock carries a rich multiple that leaves it vulnerable to any portfolio churn from prominent growth investors.

Technically, the stock is testing a critical support level. Friday’s close of $102.39 sits just above the 50-day moving average of $100.74, while the 200-day average stands at $74.13, confirming that the long-term uptrend remains intact despite the correction. The relative strength index at 43.7 suggests neither oversold nor overbought conditions. From the 52-week high of $151 set in late May, shares have shed roughly 32%, though they still show a year-to-date gain of about 35%.

Looking ahead, investors have two key catalysts on the horizon. The next Electron launch — a mission dubbed “The Grain Goddess Provides” carrying the QPS-SAR-13 satellite for Japanese customer iQPS — is slated for no earlier than June 2026 from Launch Complex 1, marking the eighth flight under a 15-launch program to build a commercial radar Earth-observation constellation. More immediately, the market is awaiting details on the Neutron rocket, whose first flight is planned for the fourth quarter. Whether the ARK sale is interpreted as routine profit-taking or a precursor to further rotation will likely hinge on how Rocket Lab converts its record backlog into stable margins and delivers on its larger infrastructure promises.