Ripple’s Supply Squeeze Intensifies as Senate Vote Looms Over Stablecoin Rules

XRP exchange supply drops to record low 3B tokens (5% of float) amid ETF cold storage and escrow re-locks. Senate CLARITY Act vote could classify XRP as commodity; price near $1.47.

The supply of XRP on centralized exchanges has dropped to a historic low of just three billion tokens, representing roughly 5% of the total circulating float of 60 billion. Several forces are driving the scarcity: spot-ETF issuers are shifting holdings into cold storage, Ripple’s latest escrow release saw 700 million of the unlocked one billion tokens immediately re-locked, and long-term wallets that have sat untouched for more than a year now control 60% of all available XRP. Against this backdrop of tightening liquidity, the token is consolidating just above the psychologically important $1.50 mark, changing hands at $1.47 after a 3.5% daily gain that briefly tested higher ground before profit-taking kicked in.

Trading volumes exploded by more than 170% in the run-up to Thursday’s decisive Senate hearing, while open interest swelled to nearly $3 billion. The volatility triggered the liquidation of roughly $6 million in short positions. Chartwatchers now have their eyes on near-term support at $1.45, a level that will be tested if the political outcome disappoints.

Washington’s Binary Bet

All attention is fixed on the Senate Banking Committee’s mark-up of the CLARITY Act, scheduled for Thursday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The bill aims to settle the jurisdictional tug-of-war between the SEC and the CFTC and to establish a definitive regulatory framework for stablecoins. For XRP, the stakes are particularly high: a successful vote would classify the digital asset as a commodity at the federal level, effectively removing a key layer of legal uncertainty.

The pushback from traditional finance has been fierce. The American Bankers Association and the Bank Policy Institute argue that yield-bearing stablecoins could shrink consumer and small-business loan volumes by as much as a fifth, triggering deposit outflows from commercial banks. A compromise proposal under discussion would ban passive returns on stablecoins while permitting activity-based rewards, but the banking lobby remains opposed. On the Polymarket prediction platform, the implied probability of the bill passing through committee slid from 79% to 62% as opposition hardened.

Senators Thom Tillis and Cynthia Lummis are steering the legislation, and the committee vote is widely viewed as a binary event. If it fails, XRP could slip back to the $1.30 support zone. A positive outcome, however, would open the door to a re-test of resistance at $1.58, followed by the more formidable barrier at $1.72.

Ripple’s Infrastructure Bet

While the regulatory drama plays out, Ripple is quietly scaling its institutional footprint. Ripple Prime, the company’s prime-brokerage arm, has secured a $200 million debt facility from Neuberger Specialty Finance to expand margin financing for institutional clients. Since the billion-dollar acquisition of Hidden Road last October, Prime’s revenue has tripled and its annual clearing volume now exceeds $3 trillion.

Beyond Prime, RippleX is preparing to launch its FinTech Builder Program later this year, offering startups tools to build payment systems on the XRP Ledger. In Japan, SBI Holdings is laying the groundwork for a reclassification of XRP expected in the second quarter, a move that could further boost institutional adoption in Asia.

The combination of dwindling exchange supply, fresh capital for institutional services, and a looming regulatory inflection point has left the market coiled for a breakout. Thursday’s committee vote will determine whether that breakout targets the $1.80 ceiling or snaps back toward the $1.30 floor.