Ripple's EU License and On-Chain Surge Converge as XRP Finally Clears $1.10

XRP breaks above $1.10 on Ripple's CASP license and ETF inflows, but retail profit metrics hit 2022 lows, creating a split market narrative.

For weeks, XRP had been trapped in a downward channel, each rally attempt smothered by the $1.10 resistance. That ceiling finally gave way in recent days, pushing the token to around $1.14 — a weekly gain of nearly 8%. Yet the backdrop behind this move is anything but straightforward. While institutional activity and network adoption are accelerating, the mood among retail holders remains strikingly bleak.

The catalyst that underpins much of the institutional push came on July 6, when Ripple received a full CASP license from Luxembourg’s CSSF. The approval allows the company to offer custody and trading services across multiple European markets, arriving just as the transition period for the EU’s MiCA regulation expired. The new rules have winnowed the field dramatically: from more than a thousand registered crypto service providers, only 280 have secured full authorization across Europe. Ripple, by contrast, now holds over 75 regulatory permits worldwide.

On the XRP Ledger, the license news triggered a surge in activity. Trading volume exploded by 207% around the announcement, and large investors began pulling tokens off exchanges in size. The amount of XRP held on trading platforms has tightened measurably, with exchange outflows tripling to roughly 123 million tokens.

The on-chain footprint is expanding, too. Active addresses on the XRP Ledger jumped 72% over a two-week period, signaling a sharp uptick in user engagement. That momentum is mirrored in the institutional channel: XRP-spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for eight consecutive weeks, amassing a cumulative $1.47 billion. Although a brief bout of outflows in early July punctuated the streak, the overall trend remains solidly in favor of accumulation.

Ripple is also laying groundwork beyond the trading desk. The company’s portfolio firm Evernorth filed a new trademark on the Cayman Islands as part of a treasury initiative tied to XRP. In parallel, Ripple joined a Wall Street-backed stablecoin consortium, a move designed to deepen its foothold in the broader digital payments ecosystem.

Yet the retail side tells a different story. A key profit-to-loss metric for smaller holders has fallen to its lowest level since mid-2022, reflecting widespread capitulation. Many traders have thrown in the towel, selling positions at a loss and adding to downward pressure. Despite the recent price bounce, XRP remains roughly 39% lower since the start of the year and sits 69% below its 2025 peak.

Technically, the breakout above $1.10 has flipped that level into a support zone. Volume has pulled back slightly since the spike, which often precedes a larger directional move. If the bulls can hold the current range, the next major target sits at $1.25. But the downside is equally well-defined: a slip back under the psychological $1.00 mark would open the door to $0.93, with a deeper floor at $0.87 if selling intensifies.

For now, the narrative around XRP is split between two forces. One is the steady institutional build — a license in the EU, growing ETF demand, and expanding network utility. The other is the lingering pessimism among smaller investors, who have endured months of losses and are only beginning to see signs of a turnaround. Which force wins out will determine whether this breakout has legs or proves to be another false dawn.