Rigetti Computing Stock: Bullish Target Fails to Ignite Rally

Rigetti US76655K1034

A prominent investment bank recently issued a call that should have electrified shareholders: a near-doubling of the stock price for quantum computing specialist Rigetti Computing. Instead of sparking a rally, the shares continued to lose ground. While the long-term technological vision remains compelling, current insider selling activity and a steep valuation premium are injecting palpable nervousness into the market.

A significant headwind for the stock is its fundamental valuation. Rigetti currently trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of approximately 23.2. This stands in stark contrast to the broader semiconductor sector, which averages a P/B of 3.9. This substantial premium leaves the equity vulnerable to volatility, as the company must still grow into these high expectations.

The recent weakness also occurs within the context of a preceding meteoric rise. Since January 2024, the share price had surged by over 2,700% at its peak. Operational results, however, have yet to catch up with this explosive price action. Although Rigetti secured orders for its Novera systems in October, the associated revenue is not expected to be recognized until the first half of 2026.

Mizuho's Vote of Confidence

The catalyst for recent attention was an analysis from Mizuho Securities on Thursday. The firm initiated coverage of Rigetti Computing with an "Outperform" rating and established a price target of $50. From current levels, this implies an upside potential of roughly 93%.

Analyst Vijay Rakesh bases this optimistic outlook on the company's technological roadmap. Rigetti aims to deliver systems with 150 qubits by 2026 and scale to over 1,000 qubits by 2027. Mizuho sees the company as well-positioned within a quantum computing market projected to grow from an estimated $1 billion in 2025 to over $200 billion by 2035.

Insider Sales and Technical Pressure

Despite this bullish external assessment, the stock failed to reverse its recent downward trend. Market observers point to reports of insider sales disclosed on December 11. When executives sell shares during a corrective phase, investors often interpret it as a cautionary signal, and the news recently weighed on sentiment across the quantum sector.

The technical picture has also deteriorated. The share price has fallen below its key 50-day moving average, a signal that suggests potential for further near-term correction. Investors are now looking ahead to possible updates on Rigetti's 84-qubit Ankaa-3 system or new government contracts that could act as catalysts for a trend reversal. The company's next quarterly results are not anticipated until March 2026.

Key Data Points:
* Friday's Closing Price: €22.10
* 7-Day Change: -9.05%
* 30-Day Change: 0.91%
* 52-Week High: €48.36 (October 14, 2025)
* Distance from 52-Week High: -54.30%
* 52-Week Low: €19.80 (November 20, 2025)
* Distance from 52-Week Low: 11.62%
* 50-Day Moving Average: €27.81
* Distance from 50-Day MA: -20.54%
* RSI (14-Day): 51.1
* Volatility (30-Day, Annualized): 97.05%