Rheinmetall Stock Sinks 25% This Year Even as Record €73bn Backlog Mounts

Rheinmetall's shares edge up 2.16% to €1,200.20, yet remain down ~40% from peak. Analysts see entry point at €1,750 target, with key catalysts from investor conferences, NATO summit, and Q2 results.

Rheinmetall’s share price ended the week with a modest bounce — up 2.16% to €1,200.20 on Friday — but the broader picture remains deeply troubled. The defence group has lost roughly a quarter of its value since January, sitting nearly 40% below the record high struck last September. The disconnect between operational strength and market sentiment has rarely been starker.

The company is sitting on a record order book of €73 billion, with its newly created marine division alone accounting for €5.5 billion of that total. Yet investors are pressing management for clarity on how quickly those contracts can be converted into revenue. Chief executives will face those questions head-on this week as they appear at the Mediobanca CEO Conference in Milan on Tuesday and the Baader Bank Partner Summit in Unterschleißheim on Thursday.

Berenberg analyst George McWhirter, who reaffirmed a Buy rating and €1,750 price target for Rheinmetall on 19 June, sees the current weakness as an entry point. His conviction was bolstered by a trip to the Eurosatory defence trade fair in Paris (15–19 June), where he noted higher visitor numbers than two years ago — a bullish signal for the entire European defence sector. Among the systems Rheinmetall showcased were a containerised missile launcher for the FV?014 loitering munition, the Lynx KF41 in a reconnaissance configuration with counter?UAS kit, the Hermelin cUAS drone defence system, and the Kraken K3 Scout unmanned surface vessel. McWhirter views product roll?outs at such events less as a novelty gauge and more as a sentiment indicator for the industry.

Technically, the stock remains fragile. The 200?day moving average sits at around €1,585, more than 24% above the current level, while the May low of €1,099.80 is still within striking distance — just under 9% away. The RSI stands at 46.8, suggesting no extreme overbought or oversold conditions, but annualised volatility remains elevated at 41%.

Rheinmetall is sticking to its full?year guidance of revenue reaching as high as €14.5 billion. Looking further ahead, the group targets revenue of €14.0–14.5 billion in 2026 alongside an operating margin of roughly 19%. Berenberg, for its part, points to the upcoming NATO summit on 7–8 July and the confirmation of anticipated large?ticket orders as potential share price catalysts in the near term.

The next major test for the stock — beyond this week’s investor gatherings — will come on 6 August, when Rheinmetall publishes its second?quarter results. Until then, the market will be watching whether the order pile?up finally begins to lift the share price out of its nine?month rut.