Rheinmetall's Stock Sheds 9.5% in a Week Despite Laser and ATACMS Deals — Can the Narrative Shift?

Rheinmetall shares tumble 46% in 12 months as record NATO pledges, Lockheed deal, and laser contract fail to reverse bearish trend; stock near 52-week low.

The German defence group has spent the past week assembling what reads like a wish-list of catalysts: a partnership with Lockheed Martin to build ATACMS rockets in Europe, a contract to develop a laser weapon system for the Bundeswehr, a fresh order from Kuwait, and a NATO summit that delivered record spending pledges. Yet the share price has gone precisely nowhere — or rather, it has gone sharply lower.

On Friday, Rheinmetall’s stock closed at €993.00, down 1.90% on the day and 9.48% lower than the previous Friday. The slide has been relentless: the shares have lost 38.00% since the start of the year and 46.25% over the past twelve months. At its current level, the stock is barely 10% above the 52-week low of €902.50 touched on 25 June, having fallen 50% from the September 2025 high of €1,995.00.

The two headline deals of the week came in quick succession. On 7 July, Rheinmetall signed a memorandum of understanding with Lockheed Martin to set up the first ATACMS production line outside the United States at its Unterlüß facility. Two days later, together with MBDA Deutschland, it was awarded a contract in the mid-three-digit-million-euro range to build a high-energy laser weapon system for the German Navy — a platform designed to counter drone threats by 2029. Separately, Kuwait placed its first order for the MASS decoy launcher system to equip eight naval vessels, a contract valued in the mid-double-digit millions excluding ammunition.

These operational coups came against the backdrop of the NATO summit in Ankara on 7–8 July, where alliance leaders pushed for a new burden-sharing framework. Germany committed defence spending of roughly €125 billion for 2026, equivalent to 2.69% of GDP, and signalled a longer-term aim of 5% by 2035. For a company whose core business hinges on government procurement, the trajectory looks favourable — but the equity market is not buying it.

Technical indicators paint a picture of entrenched selling pressure. The stock is trading 15.05% below its 50-day moving average and 34.59% below its 200-day moving average. The relative strength index sits at 37.2, a level that points to sustained bearish momentum without technically oversold territory. Annualised 30-day volatility stands at 68.77%, a strikingly high reading for a DAX constituent of Rheinmetall’s size, and the market capitalisation has shrunk to €47.17 billion.

Analysts remain on the sidelines. Jefferies & Company reaffirmed its "Buy" rating on 10 July, but the endorsement failed to stir any buying interest. The broader sentiment around European defence stocks remains fraught, and investors seem focused on near-term risks — execution, margins, or possible political headwinds — rather than the order-book expansion.

Rheinmetall's first-quarter results already showed growth in revenue and earnings, and management has kept its full-year guidance unchanged. The next major test arrives on 6 August, when the company reports second-quarter numbers. Until then, the disconnect between a flurry of strategic wins and a stock that keeps sliding is unlikely to resolve itself.