Rheinmetall’s Record Orders and Warship Launches Mask a Stock in Freefall

Rheinmetall’s order backlog nears €64bn with a €3.4bn Romanian Lynx deal and naval contracts, yet shares languish near 12-month lows as investors await earnings.

The gap between Rheinmetall’s operational momentum and its share price has rarely been wider. While the Düsseldorf-based defence group is churning out artillery shells at a pace that now outstrips the entire United States, and christening warships for the German navy, its stock is languishing near 12-month lows. Investors are looking past the headlines and waiting for the numbers.

A €3.4bn Romanian Bet on the Lynx

The most significant near-term catalyst for the order book lies in Eastern Europe. Romania is pushing ahead with a sweeping modernisation of its armed forces, and Rheinmetall stands to be the primary beneficiary. The Bucharest government has submitted a project list to parliament, approved on 29 April, that includes the procurement of Lynx KF41 infantry fighting vehicles at a cost of roughly €3.4bn. The new armoured vehicles will replace the country’s ageing MLI-84 models, relics of the Soviet era.

Financing for the deal is being channelled through the EU’s SAFE programme, and Romania could become the second-largest recipient of that fund. The Lynx contract also calls for deep involvement of local industry, a standard feature of large European defence deals that helps secure political backing.

Naval Systems: From Hamburg to the Black Sea

Rheinmetall’s naval ambitions are gathering pace on two fronts. In Hamburg at the end of April, the group celebrated the christening of the corvette LÜBECK, a milestone for the newly created Naval Systems division. The vessel, designed for coastal operations and anti-surface warfare, now moves to final outfitting. Two more ships are due for delivery before the end of the year.

Further east, Rheinmetall is emerging as the leading candidate for a Romanian naval programme worth over €920m. The package covers four vessels: two multi-purpose patrol boats in a corvette configuration and two diver support ships. The corvette design is supplied by the NVL Group, whose military arm Rheinmetall acquired in March 2026 and folded into its Naval Systems unit. A successful Romanian bid would serve as an early validation of that acquisition.

The Bundeswehr Keeps Spending

Domestically, the order flow shows no sign of slowing. Rheinmetall has secured another major contract from the German armed forces, worth just over €1bn, for equipment tied to the “Infanterist der Zukunft” (Future Soldier) system. The package includes body armour, night-vision devices and networked communications gear that gives commanders a real-time view of troop positions and suspected enemy locations.

The group’s total order backlog has swelled to nearly €64bn, and management expects that figure to double by year-end. Artillery shell production capacity has been ramped up to over one million units annually, a volume that Rheinmetall claims already exceeds total US output in that category. Production of military trucks and medium-calibre ammunition has also been multiplied.

The Stock Tells a Different Story

None of this has been enough to arrest the slide in Rheinmetall’s share price. The stock closed at €1,341.20 on 1 May, down more than 22% since late February. It is now trading well below the €1,500 level that chartists have identified as a formidable resistance zone. The disconnect is stark: analysts still see the shares as a buy, with a consensus price target of roughly €2,050 and not a single sell recommendation on the books.

Two Dates on the Calendar

The market will get its next chance to reassess the story on 7 May, when Rheinmetall publishes its first-quarter results for 2026. Management has guided for full-year revenue growth of more than 40% and an operating margin of around 19%. Analysts are pencilling in earnings per share of €39.61 for the year, a 166% jump from the prior year.

Five days later, on 12 May, the virtual annual general meeting will take place. The board has proposed a dividend of €11.50 per share. Whether that will be enough to shift sentiment remains an open question. For now, the market is treating Rheinmetall’s record order book as a promise that has yet to be delivered in the profit-and-loss statement.