Rheinmetall’s 52-Week Low: Revenue Miss Overshadows €73bn Backlog and New Joint Ventures

Rheinmetall shares plunge to €1,171.80 after Q1 revenue falls short of €2.3B consensus; JPMorgan cuts target, but Warburg upgrades and management buys the dip.

Rheinmetall’s stock tumbled to a fresh 52-week trough on Monday, touching as low as €1,171.80 — a level some data services rounded to €1,173 — as a first-quarter revenue shortfall rattled investors. The defence group posted sales of just under €1.9 billion, well short of the €2.3 billion analysts had pencilled in. Management blamed delayed deliveries of military trucks and slower-than-expected production ramp-up at its Murcia munitions plant in Spain.

The sell-off was compounded by a swift downgrade from JPMorgan. Analyst David Perry slashed his price target to €1,500 and cut earnings forecasts by as much as 5% for the coming years, citing rising execution risk tied to the growing web of partnerships. Warburg Research took the opposite view, upgrading the shares to “Buy” with a conservative target of €1,550; analyst Christian Cohrs called the pullback a clear entry point, dismissing the quarterly miss as minor. Over at UBS, the buy rating stayed intact with a bold €2,200 target.

Top executives have also put their money where their mouth is. Board member Dr. Jutta Roosen-Grillo scooped up shares worth over €60,000, while CEO Armin Papperger used the dip to add to his own stake — a pattern of insider buying that suggests management sees value at current levels.

Operationally, the Düsseldorf-based group is pressing ahead on multiple fronts. A new joint venture with Dutch firm Destinus, code-named Ruta 2, will produce cruise missiles with a range of 700 kilometres and a payload of 250 kilograms. Rheinmetall holds a 51% stake, and production is slated to begin at the Unterlüß facility in the second half of 2026. Separately, the company has teamed up with Deutsche Telekom to create a layered defence shield for cities and critical infrastructure. The system uses RF sensors mounted on mobile phone masts to detect incoming drones, then neutralises them with jamming signals, interceptor drones or lasers. The concept will be unveiled at the AFCEA security fair in Bonn on 12 May.

While these projects speak to the company’s long-term ambitions, near-term results remain under scrutiny. First-quarter operating profit still rose 17% year on year, and the order backlog stood at a formidable €73 billion. Yet the revenue gap has shifted focus to execution, especially as Rheinmetall juggles an array of new alliances. The delays in truck deliveries are expected to reverse in the second quarter, when the lost revenue is booked.

On the corporate front, the exit from civilian operations is gathering pace. Rheinmetall is in exclusive talks with restructuring specialist Aequita over the sale of its Power Systems automotive parts division, with a deal hoped for by May. For shareholders, the board has proposed a dividend of €11.50 per share, adjusted for new shares issued from convertible bonds.

Since the start of the year, the stock has lost roughly 27% of its value. The question now is whether the support level around €1,170 will hold — or whether the market’s patience with execution hiccups will outweigh the promise of a €73bn order book and a new generation of cruise missiles and drone defences.