Rheinmetall Nears a Key Technical Test as Q2 Earnings Loom

Rheinmetall shares rebound 20.78% from June low ahead of Q2 results, supported by new €60.5M Bundeswehr order and €73B backlog, but remain 26.6% below 200-day moving average.

The defence group’s shares have clawed back more than a fifth of their value since hitting a 2025 low in late June, but the path to a full recovery remains steep. Rheinmetall closed at €1,090.00 on Tuesday, a gain of 2.95 percent on the day and 7.64 percent over the past seven sessions, as investors look ahead to second-quarter results due on Thursday, 6 August.

The stock touched its year nadir of €902.50 on 25 June. Since then, it has rallied 20.78 percent, now testing resistance around the €1,100 mark and inching toward its 50-day moving average of €1,112.49. The 200-day average, however, sits at €1,485.25 — roughly 26.6 percent above the current price — underscoring the distance still to travel before the longer-term trend turns decisively bullish.

A New Bundeswehr Order Adds to a Growing Pipeline

Adding to the positive sentiment, the German armed forces have placed a fresh order for 56 additional Elefant 2 heavy-duty transporters through Rheinmetall MAN Military Vehicles. The contract, valued at €60.5 million, is scheduled for delivery across 2026 and 2027.

The order extends an existing framework agreement. Berlin had originally secured options for up to 137 vehicles, with an initial tranche of 32 Elefant 2 units ordered under a seven-year deal worth €122 million gross — fully delivered by early 2025. The latest expansion reflects increased demand as Germany deepens its role as NATO’s logistics hub. The Elefant 2 complements the Mammut heavy transporter, also supplied by the joint venture.

This is not an isolated win. In May, Rheinmetall landed a billion-euro contract for more than 2,000 unprotected transport vehicles — the fourth tranche of a framework covering up to 6,500 units. The group also secured a €1.04 billion deal for IdZ-ES soldier systems, covering the modernisation and delivery of complete platoon equipment. The breadth of these contracts — spanning heavy transporters, military trucks and infantry gear — underscores how deeply the Düsseldorf-based company is now embedded in Germany’s defence supply chain.

The Bigger Picture: A €73 Billion Backlog and a Strategic Pivot

Rheinmetall’s fundamental anchor remains its order book, which stands at roughly €73 billion. That backlog provides a sturdy floor for investor confidence, even as the share price trades well below the record high set in October 2025.

The company is also pressing ahead with its transformation into a pure-play defence contractor. In June, it signed a purchase agreement to sell its civilian Power Systems division to investment firm AEQUITA for a preliminary €350 million. The closing, subject to regulatory approval, is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Once completed, Rheinmetall will be left with three high-margin military segments: Vehicle Systems, Weapon and Ammunition, and Air Defence.

What the Market Expects on Thursday

Consensus analyst forecasts point to second-quarter revenue of roughly €3.12 billion — a year-on-year increase of more than 28 percent. Earnings per share are seen at €6.06, more than double the €2.90 reported in the same period last year.

If Rheinmetall delivers on those expectations, it could provide the catalyst needed to break the short-term downtrend decisively. Until then, the €73 billion order book remains the single most important pillar supporting the stock’s recovery narrative.