Rheinmetall Faces a Pivotal Week as Record Orders Fail to Lift a Sagging Share Price

Rheinmetall shares slide 33% from all-time high as record €64B order book and ambitious targets face market skepticism ahead of Q1 earnings and AGM.

The disconnect between Rheinmetall’s operational momentum and its stock market performance has rarely been starker. While the Düsseldorf-based defence contractor has been stacking up multibillion-euro contracts, its shares have lost roughly 13% since the start of the year, sliding to around €1,355 — a full 33% below their all-time high.

The company’s order book has swelled to a record near €64 billion, buoyed by a string of recent successes. Late last month, Romania selected Rheinmetall’s Lynx infantry fighting vehicle as its new standard platform, a deal valued at approximately €3.4 billion that also encompasses air defence systems and patrol vessels. That announcement came alongside the christening of a new corvette for the German Navy in Hamburg.

Yet the market remains unimpressed. The valuation already reflects much of the anticipated growth, leaving the stock acutely sensitive to any hint of disappointment. Some observers question whether Rheinmetall can ramp up production quickly enough to meet demand, while the company’s massive capacity expansion — including the stockpiling of €8 billion worth of critical components — is tying up capital and weighing on cash flow.

A Two-Pronged Test Next Week

The first major hurdle arrives on 7 May, when Rheinmetall releases its first-quarter results. Management has set ambitious targets for the full year, aiming for revenue of up to €14.5 billion and an operating margin of roughly 19%. Analysts are pencilling in earnings of around €39 per share for 2025, more than double the prior year’s figure. The quarterly numbers will be the first concrete evidence that those projections are within reach.

Despite the recent share price weakness, several heavyweight institutions remain bullish. JP Morgan continues to recommend buying the stock, with a price target of €2,130 — well above the current level and only marginally below the average analyst target.

Dividend Decision Looms

Just five days after the quarterly report, on 12 May, Rheinmetall will hold its virtual annual general meeting. The board has proposed raising the dividend to €11.50 per share, a sharp increase from last year’s €8.10 payout. Shareholders must hold the stock by the AGM date to qualify for the distribution, which is scheduled to hit accounts on 15 May. The shares will trade ex-dividend the following day.

The technical picture remains challenging, with the stock trapped in a downtrend. A sustained move above the 20-day moving average would be needed to brighten the outlook. Thursday’s earnings release provides the most immediate catalyst for a potential reversal — provided the numbers confirm that Rheinmetall’s operational strength can finally translate into shareholder returns.