Rheinmetall Approaches Oversold Levels as Laser, ATACMS, and Kuwait Deals Fail to Stem the Slide

Despite securing record multi-billion euro contracts for laser weapons and ATACMS, Rheinmetall stock has tumbled 38% in 2026 and is near its 52-week low.

Rheinmetall’s stock closed at €993.00 on Friday, marking a 1.9% decline on the day and extending a punishing stretch that has seen the defence heavyweight lose 12.6% over the past week alone. The rout has wiped 38% from the share price since the start of 2026, and the twelve-month drop stands at 46.9%. The slide has brought the stock to within just 10% of its 52-week low of €902.50, reached in June — and all this against the backdrop of an unusually dense spate of contract announcements.

The disconnect between operational momentum and market sentiment has rarely been wider. In the span of a single week, Rheinmetall secured high-profile deals spanning laser weapons, rocket production, naval decoy systems, and field hospitals. Yet the share price continued its descent, with the 50-day simple moving average now 15.1% above the current price and the 200-day average 34.6% higher — both firmly signalling a sustained downtrend.

A laser contract and a transatlantic rocket pact

On 9 July, Rheinmetall, together with MBDA Deutschland, signed a contract with the German federal procurement office to develop a high-energy laser weapon system for the navy. The newly formed joint venture, ARGE HEL, will build the system with a budget in the mid triple-digit million euro range. The weapon is slated to be operational by 2029 and will cover the full engagement chain, from reconnaissance and target tracking to destruction. The groundwork was laid by a laser demonstrator that, aboard the frigate Sachsen, logged around 28,000 nautical miles and fired more than 1,000 shots against air, surface, and land targets during trials in March 2026.

Two days earlier, on 7 July, Rheinmetall signed a memorandum of understanding with Lockheed Martin to produce ATACMS missiles in Europe. The first production line outside the US will be set up at Rheinmetall’s site in Unterlüß, Lower Saxony. The deal underscores the company’s push to deepen its transatlantic defence footprint at a time when European NATO members are scrambling to replenish inventories.

Kuwait and Morocco add to the order book

In a separate maritime deal, the Kuwaiti naval forces placed their first order for Rheinmetall’s Multi Ammunition Softkill System (MASS), a decoy launcher that protects ships against modern anti-ship missiles including radar and infrared threats. The contract, valued in the low double-digit million euro range, will equip eight vessels and includes complementary Omnitrap ammunition worth a high single-digit million euro figure. The order is part of Kuwait’s largest shipbuilding programme in more than 15 years. Rheinmetall booked the total order in the second quarter of 2026, with deliveries running until 2029.

In June, Rheinmetall Mobile Systeme signed a separate agreement with Morocco for seven mobile field hospitals, a contract worth a mid double-digit million euro amount. Deliveries are scheduled for 2027 and 2028. The hospital project is independent of the naval and missile-related orders.

Technical damage deepens despite analyst confidence

The market shrugged off a "Buy" rating from Jefferies & Company, reiterated on 10 July, and appeared more focused on the technical picture. The relative strength index stands at 37.2, approaching oversold territory but not yet triggering a reversal signal. The 30-day annualised volatility of 68.8% is exceptionally high for a DAX constituent of Rheinmetall's size — the company’s current market capitalisation is €47.17 billion.

The broader mood around European defence stocks has soured in recent weeks, and Rheinmetall has not been spared. The shares now trade more than 50% below the 52-week high of €1,995.00 set on 29 September 2025. The moving average crossovers and the proximity to the year’s low suggest the burden of proof has shifted back to the company’s financial results.

All eyes on the second-quarter report

Rheinmetall is due to publish its second-quarter earnings on 6 August. The first quarter saw increases in both sales and profit, and management has reaffirmed its 2026 full-year guidance. For the second quarter, the group expects even stronger growth in revenue and order intake. The question hanging over the stock is whether the accumulated contract wins — from laser weapons and ATACMS to Kuwaiti decoys and Moroccan field hospitals — will finally show up in the order backlog and persuade the market that the operational story is not being drowned out by broader sector headwinds. Until then, the gap between the news flow and the share price looks set to widen further.