Renk’s Roadshow and €325 Million Factory Bet Aim to Close the Gap Between Record Orders and a Crashing Stock

Renk's executives launch transatlantic roadshow to reassure investors after shares hit 52-week low, despite record order backlog of €6.9 billion and reaffirmed guidance.

Renk’s management is taking the fight to the market. With the stock plumbing fresh lows even as the order book swells to historic levels, the defence supplier’s top brass is embarking on a transatlantic roadshow this week to convince investors that the sell-off has gone too far. Presentations are scheduled for New York and Frankfurt, followed by a slot at the International Investment Forum in Frankfurt on 20 May — a high-profile platform where the board will need to square a 50% share price slide with a backlog of nearly €7 billion.

The numbers on the trading screen tell a brutal story. On Friday, the shares closed at €43.91, exactly a 52-week low and a drop of 19.75% over the past 30 days alone. Since the start of the year, the stock has shed 20.43%, and the distance from last October’s high now stands at a staggering 50.52%. Technical pressure is mounting: the equity has sunk well below its 200-day moving average, and the broader defence sector has taken a hit from cautious comments by Rheinmetall, which added to the selling wave.

Yet inside the Augsburg-based company, the narrative is entirely different. Renk posted a record first quarter for order intake at €582.3 million, and the overall order backlog sits at roughly €6.9 billion. Adjusted EBIT rose 10.4%, and management has reaffirmed its full-year guidance: revenue above €1.5 billion, with adjusted EBIT landing between €255 million and €285 million. Crucially, more than 90% of planned sales are already covered by firm orders and framework agreements. The demand, particularly from the Bundeswehr, NATO and other allied forces, shows no sign of cooling.

To turn that top-line strength into sustainable growth, Renk is pouring capital into its domestic manufacturing base. Under a site initiative running to 2028, up to €325 million will flow into German plants, with the money split three ways: digitalisation efforts centred on “drive-by-wire” technology for autonomous systems, capacity expansion to meet higher volumes for military clients, and the development of hybrid drive trains that improve manoeuvrability for armoured vehicles. The investment underscores the company’s confidence that the current demand wave is structural, not cyclical.

Analysts remain split on whether the share price has priced in too much pessimism. MWB Research has upgraded Renk from “Hold” to “Buy” with a €53 target, arguing the correction is overdone. Goldman Sachs, by contrast, holds at “Neutral” but slashed its price target from €70 to €65 on 14 May. Warburg Research sees fair value at €63. The wide divergence highlights the uncertainty that has dragged the stock down: investors are focusing less on the size of the order book and more on Renk’s ability to convert that demand into margin and cashflow.

Management is leaning heavily on its secured revenue base and long-term ambitions. By 2030, Renk targets revenue between €2.8 billion and €3.2 billion, with defence sales rising to roughly 90% of the mix from today’s three-quarters. In a show of continuity, the supervisory board recently extended CEO Dr. Alexander Sagel’s contract by five years through 2032, citing the strong growth trajectory.

The next formal shareholder event is the virtual annual general meeting on 10 June 2026, where the board will face questions about the dividend proposal for the past financial year and, inevitably, the stock’s collapse. But before that, the May roadshow gives management a chance to explain why a record order book, a €325 million factory upgrade and a renewed CEO mandate still cannot lift a share price that has been cut in half.