Regulatory Wins Fail to Slow SpaceX Stock's Descent Toward IPO Price

SpaceX secures FAA clearance for Starship and a new NASA contract, but shares hover near all-time low amid lock-up expiration fears and 27% monthly drop.

SpaceX secured a clean bill of health from the FAA for its Starship program and a fresh NASA launch contract within the span of 48 hours, yet the stock continues to languish within a hair's breadth of its 52-week low — and not far from the $135 IPO price. The shares traded Tuesday at €121.00, a mere 0.67% above the all-time low of €120.20 hit earlier this week. That puts the equity roughly 38% below the record high of €194.46 reached on June 16, just days after the historic Nasdaq listing.

The sell-off has been relentless over the past month, with the stock shedding more than 27% in 30 days alone. Annualized volatility stands at nearly 98%, and the relative strength index of 40.8 suggests the decline has not yet reached oversold territory. Investors appear to be looking past the operational milestones and focusing instead on the looming lock-up expirations that threaten to flood the market with insider shares.

The FAA’s closure of the investigation into the May 22 Starship test flight — which saw five Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster fail to reignite, causing the stage to crash into the Gulf of Mexico — removed one overhang. SpaceX has implemented four hardware and software fixes targeting heat damage and faulty engine alarm settings. That green-light cleared the way for Flight 13, now slated for as early as Thursday, July 16. The mission will be the first to deploy 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites, each capable of up to 60 Tbps of throughput, and will attempt a controlled landing of the booster. Six of the satellites carry specialized cameras to film the upper stage’s reentry, providing real-time data on heat shield performance.

On the same day the FAA gave its all-clear, NASA announced it was moving its SunRISE solar observatory mission from United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rocket to a Falcon Heavy rideshare. The agency cited persistent certification delays and schedule risk at ULA — the latest in a string of high-profile defections that underscore SpaceX’s growing dominance in heavy-lift launch. For shareholders, the contract win reinforces the company’s revenue pipeline but did little to arrest the stock’s slide.

The bigger worry remains supply. Beginning in early August, when SpaceX reports second-quarter results, roughly 20% of insider-held shares become tradable, with additional tranches unlocking at 90, 105, 120 and 135 days. The first unlock alone is larger than the entire free float at the time of the IPO. Founder Elon Musk has already sold 11,390 shares worth about $1.2 million, and his net worth has reportedly fallen by more than $500 billion since the June peak. Portfolio manager Ken Mahoney has expressed doubt that a bottom has been reached.

Analyst opinions span an extraordinary range. Evercore ISI initiated coverage on July 14 with an “Outperform” rating and a $230 target, calling the stock “too compelling to ignore” and projecting 106% annual revenue growth and 157% EBITDA expansion through 2028. Morgan Stanley is even more bullish at $300, and Raymond James set a $800 target. At the opposite end, MoffettNathanson rates the stock “Neutral” with a $131 target, arguing the Starlink total-addressable market of nearly $30 trillion is unrealistic, while Morningstar sees fair value at just $62 and CFRA recommends selling with a $115 target. Despite the divergence, roughly 80% of analysts rate the stock a buy, with a consensus price target between $236 and $245.

Underlying the debate are sharply contrasting financials. Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025, with over 10.3 million subscribers. But the AI subsidiary xAI, folded into the parent in February 2026, posted an operating loss of $6.36 billion last year. The $60 billion acquisition of software firm Cursor in June adds further capital intensity. The group recorded a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 and a $4.3 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026, even as revenue rose 15.4% year-over-year to $4.7 billion. Analysts expect a full-year 2026 loss per share of $0.67 on roughly $38.9 billion in revenue, with profitability projected at $0.63 per share in 2027. For now, the market is pricing in the cash burn, the lock-up overhang, and the execution risk of Starship — leaving the stock in a precarious holding pattern ahead of Thursday’s test flight.