Regulatory Progress and Product Expansion Shape Coinbase's 2026 Outlook

Coinbase sees a key stablecoin regulatory compromise in the Senate while expanding internationally with 24/7 perpetual stock futures for non-U.S. users.

Coinbase finds itself at a pivotal juncture, navigating significant developments on both the product innovation and regulatory fronts. These parallel tracks are set to define the company's trajectory as it approaches its second-quarter 2026 results.

A Legislative Breakthrough in Washington

After months of deliberation, a key regulatory impasse in Washington appears to be moving toward resolution. On March 20, Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks reached a fundamental compromise concerning stablecoin yields, a deal that has garnered support from the White House.

The core of the agreement prohibits passive interest earned merely from holding a stablecoin. However, rewards tied to specific activities—such as making payments or using platform features—would remain permissible. According to Senator Cynthia Lummis, rewards programs not structured as traditional bank interest would survive under this compromise. She also noted that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong demonstrated greater flexibility in recent negotiations compared to discussions around an earlier draft of the legislation.

The financial stakes for Coinbase are substantial. In 2025, the company generated $1.35 billion in revenue from its stablecoin operations, a significant increase from $910 million the previous year. This segment now stands as Coinbase's second-largest revenue source. Clear Street analyst Owen Lau contextualized the debate as relevant but not existential, noting that stablecoin yields represent just one of many factors attracting users to the platform.

The legislative journey for the CLARITY Act continues, with several steps remaining: a markup in the Senate Banking Committee, a full Senate vote requiring 60 votes for passage, two reconciliation votes to harmonize the bill with the House version passed in July 2025 and the Agriculture Committee's input, and finally, the President's signature. The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to review the revised draft after the Easter recess, toward the end of April.

Launching Round-the-Clock Equity Derivatives

In a simultaneous strategic move, Coinbase has expanded its international product suite. As of this week, eligible non-U.S. users can trade Perpetual Stock Futures—leveraged, non-expiring futures contracts on U.S. equities that are available for trading 24 hours a day.

The initial rollout features contracts on the seven largest U.S. technology stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla. In select regions, the offering also includes ETF contracts tracking the SPY and QQQ funds. All contracts are settled in USDC, the dollar-pegged stablecoin issued by Circle. The products offer leverage of up to 10x for single stocks and up to 20x for ETF contracts.

This launch positions Coinbase among the first major centralized exchanges to offer such a product, which has previously been more common on decentralized platforms. The service operates through Coinbase Bermuda under the oversight of the Bermuda Monetary Authority.

Market Performance and Forthcoming Results

Coinbase shares have declined approximately 15% since the start of the year, though they currently trade above their 50-day moving average of €164. The market will gain clearer insight into the early impact of these new derivative products and the evolving regulatory landscape when the company releases its next quarterly figures on May 7, 2026.