Record Shareholder Payouts and ECB Pressure Intensify Commerzbank’s Standoff with UniCredit

Commerzbank proposes €1.10 dividend and 21% ROE target by 2030, while ECB criticizes Berlin's opposition to UniCredit's takeover. Stock overbought with RSI at 86.1.

Commerzbank is heading into its annual general meeting next week armed with a record dividend proposal and a freshly upgraded profit outlook, even as the political temperature around the UniCredit takeover bid rises sharply. The European Central Bank has publicly rebuked Berlin for its opposition to the Italian bank’s advance, describing the German government’s stance as an infringement on the single market.

Shareholders gathering in Wiesbaden on 20 May will vote on a dividend of €1.10 per share, nearly doubled from last year’s €0.65. The total payout amounts to roughly €1.2 billion, and management also wants authorisation to buy back up to 10% of share capital. Combined with existing programmes, the bank will return around €2.7 billion to shareholders for the 2025 financial year. The ex-dividend date is set for 21 May.

The generous distribution is widely seen as part of a defence strategy against UniCredit’s all-share offer, which valued Commerzbank at just over €31 per share when launched in early May. That represents a steep discount to the current market price. Commerzbank stock traded at €36.02 on Wednesday, up nearly 38% over twelve months, and well above the bid’s implied value.

Management has rejected the offer outright, calling UniCredit’s plans vague and burdened with significant execution risk. As an alternative, the board unveiled its own “Momentum 2030” strategy, targeting a return on equity of 21%. First-quarter results offered support: net profit rose 10% to €913 million and the return on equity reached 12.7%. To achieve the 2030 target, the bank plans to cut 3,000 more full-time posts across the group while investing roughly €600 million in artificial intelligence by the end of the decade.

The political dimension has added a new layer of complexity. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos, in one of his final public interventions, criticised the German government’s blocking tactics as a breach of European internal market rules. Berlin still holds about 12% of Commerzbank and opposes the deal, but lacks the legal tools to halt a formal offer. The ECB had already approved UniCredit’s accumulation of nearly 30% of Commerzbank via direct purchases and financial instruments.

With the stock price commanding a clear premium over UniCredit’s bid, technical indicators flash a warning. The relative strength index stands at 86.1, signalling an extremely overbought condition. The extended acceptance period for UniCredit’s offer is expected to run until 3 July 2026, with a potential deal closure not seen before 2027, pending multiple regulatory approvals. The next key checkpoint is the Bundeskartellamt — once it clears the transaction, Berlin will lose its last formal veto in the takeover saga.