Record Chinese Imports Drive Silver’s Decoupling from Gold

Silver extends winning streak to four sessions as China imports surge, AI infrastructure boosts demand, and geopolitical tensions support prices despite strong dollar and hawkish policy.

Silver broke through $81 a troy ounce on Monday, extending its winning streak to four sessions, as a surge in industrial offtake overwhelmed headwinds from a strong dollar and hawkish monetary policy. The metal’s advance—against the grain of gold’s slide—underscores a structural shift in demand dynamics.

China imported 836 tonnes of silver in March, nearly triple the historical monthly average. The buying binge, concentrated in photovoltaic manufacturing and electric-vehicle components, has drained exchange inventories and pushed physical premiums higher. The Silver Institute projects a sixth consecutive supply deficit in 2026, with the shortfall estimated at around 46 million ounces.

The industrial appetite extends beyond solar. Artificial-intelligence infrastructure is emerging as a new demand driver: server racks and data-centre electronics require rising quantities of the metal. The combination has pushed the gold-to-silver ratio sharply lower as investors price in a fundamental undersupply.

Geopolitical Risk Keeps a Floor Under Prices

Commodities markets remain on edge after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian peace proposal over the weekend, dismissing it as “completely unacceptable.” Although Tehran signalled willingness to negotiate, it offered no timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the waterway remains effectively closed. Brent crude jumped above $103 a barrel on the news.

For silver, the geopolitical tension has a dual effect. The safe-haven bid provides support, but the resulting energy-driven inflation expectations tie central banks’ hands. Markets now price a 25-basis-point rate hike from the European Central Bank in June, while the Federal Reserve sees little reason to ease.

Strong Jobs Data Tighten the Monetary Screw

The US economy added 115,000 non-farm jobs in April, far exceeding a range of analyst forecasts that had varied from as low as 55,000 to as high as 62,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. The robust reading reduces the urgency for Fed rate cuts and helps keep the dollar firm—a near-term headwind for non-yielding precious metals.

Attention turns to Tuesday’s US consumer-price index release for April. Economists expect a 0.6% month-on-month increase. A higher-than-forecast print would likely strengthen the dollar further, potentially capping any silver rally.

Technical Crossroads: $83 and Then $90

On the charts, the next resistance sits at $83. Low inventories on the Comex are supporting prices, while short-sellers have been covering positions. A clean break above $83 could open the path toward the $90 zone, a level not tested since the all-time high of $121.64 touched in January 2026.

The $80 mark, by contrast, remains a key psychological floor. After consolidating in a broad range following the January peak, silver has held above $80 even as gold retreated to around $4,667. The divergence is a signal that industrial fundamentals, not just macro sentiment, are now driving the price.

The market is likely to remain volatile as long as the Hormuz closure persists, oscillating between a geopolitical risk premium and the gravitational pull of higher real rates. But with China’s industrial machine running hot and supply deficits deepening, the structural bid beneath silver looks firmer than it has in years.