RBC Downgrades OMV, Citing Persistent Earnings Pressure

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Shares of Austrian energy group OMV demonstrated resilience on Thursday, trading steadily on the Vienna Stock Exchange despite a significant analyst downgrade. The stock held firm at €49.74 during morning trading, outperforming the largely flat Austrian ATX benchmark index.

This market stability came in direct contrast to a newly pessimistic assessment from RBC Capital Markets. The research firm has downgraded its rating for OMV from "Sector Perform" to "Underperform." Concurrently, RBC has slashed its price target for the company's shares from €50 to €46.

Analysts at RBC justified their more cautious stance by pointing to structural challenges within several of OMV's key operational areas. They identified particular weakness in the company's chemicals division, as well as in its European gas and refinery segments. This bleak outlook prompted a substantial revision to future earnings projections.

The firm has reduced its net profit forecast for OMV in 2026 by 15%, a figure that now sits below prevailing market consensus expectations. RBC's valuation model is predicated on an assumed Brent crude oil price of $60 per barrel. The analysts warned that sustained pressure on earnings in the identified segments would intensify should oil prices fall below this level.

Divergence Between Analyst View and Market Sentiment

The immediate market reaction suggests investors are not fully aligning with RBC's pessimistic analysis. The discrepancy between the downgrade and the stock's stable performance indicates a potential difference in perspective on the company's near-term prospects. Forthcoming quarterly financial results will likely determine whether the analysts' skepticism or the market's current confidence is warranted.

In other OMV-related developments, the Austrian Finance Ministry has projected that revenues from national CO2 pricing will reach approximately €1.7 billion in 2025. OMV is among the largest emitters covered by the country's emissions trading scheme. Additionally, OMV Petrom, the group's Romanian subsidiary, has submitted an audit report concerning transactions undertaken in the second half of 2025.