Qualcomm’s Data Center Bet Fuels a Wave of Analyst Upgrades – But the June 24 Investor Day Will Reveal Whether It’s Real

Qualcomm shares rally nearly 80% to ~191 euros ahead of June 24 Investor Day, with bulls citing data center growth and analyst targets up to $280, while Apple loss and Nvidia competition loom.

Less than a month after touching a 52-week low of 106.54 euros, Qualcomm shares have roared back, climbing nearly 80% to around 191 euros. Yet they still sit roughly 14% below their all-time high of 222.90 euros. That gap may be closed – or widened – on June 24, when the chipmaker hosts its long-awaited Investor Day.

The event has already set off a flurry of price-target revisions. On Thursday, Wells Fargo lifted its target to $230 from $160, albeit keeping an Equal-Weight rating, and pointed to the AI100 Ultra accelerator now available through AWS. JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee went further, raising his target to $265 (from $160) with an Overweight stance, based on a 23x multiple on his 2027 EPS estimate of $11.50. Daiwa Capital initiated with Outperform and $225, while Tigress Financial maintains a Buy at $280. But not everyone is convinced: Bank of America Securities continues to recommend selling the stock.

The bull case rests squarely on Qualcomm’s push into data center silicon. JPMorgan expects the company to announce at the Investor Day that data center revenue will exceed $3 billion in fiscal 2027 and reach $35 billion by 2031. That would underpin a stunning shift: non-handset revenue, which Chatterjee pegs at roughly $13 billion in fiscal 2026, could balloon to $69 billion late in the decade, implying a compound annual growth rate above 40%.

Qualcomm’s chief executive, Cristiano Amon, previewed the strategy last month at Computex Taipei, unveiling the Dragonfly brand. Dragonfly will encompass three product categories: server CPUs, AI inference accelerators, and custom ASICs. The accelerators, Amon claimed, can cut power consumption by 35% to 70% compared with conventional GPU systems. An early ASIC win has been pulled forward: first shipments, originally slated for fiscal 2027, are now expected in calendar 2026. The next-generation AI200 chip, with up to 768 GB of memory, is due before year-end.

Meanwhile, Qualcomm is extending its AI reach beyond the cloud. On June 9, it signed a memorandum of understanding with SLB, the energy technology giant, to deploy edge-AI solutions at drilling sites, plants, and production systems. SLB will contribute its Agora industrial-edge platform, while Qualcomm supplies energy-efficient processors. The partnership aims to modernise legacy environments and enable autonomous workflows – an early sign of how the company plans to monetise its low-power chip expertise in the industrial Internet of Things.

Yet significant headwinds remain. Qualcomm’s share of Apple’s current iPhone build has fallen to roughly 20%, and there is no prospect of future orders from Cupertino. UBS estimates that lost business costs Qualcomm $4 billion to $5 billion a year. The stock also took a hit earlier in June, sliding 26% from its yearly peak as Nvidia debuted its RTX Spark in the Windows-on-Arm market, and regulatory uncertainty clouded a potential AI-chip deal with ByteDance. Automotive and IoT are growing, but slowly – not fast enough alone to offset the Apple drag.

That is why the Investor Day carries such weight. Qualcomm must demonstrate, with concrete revenue targets and product details, that its data center business can close the Apple gap. If it delivers, the stock could finally challenge its all-time high. If it doesn’t, the recent rally may prove fleeting. CFO Akash Palkhiwala’s sale of 2,500 shares on June 11 – likely a routine trade under a preset plan – will be forgotten if the story holds up. Everything now hinges on a single day.