Political Crosswinds Challenge Ørsted's Recovery Momentum

Ørsted posts robust 2025 financials as Denmark's election sparks debate on selling the state's controlling stake, following a recent major bailout of the company.

Danish energy giant Ørsted is navigating a complex landscape where robust operational performance is intersecting with renewed political scrutiny over state ownership. As the company posts its strongest financial results in years, its status as a majority state-owned entity has become a central topic in Denmark's upcoming parliamentary election on March 24.

Election Puts State Ownership in the Spotlight

The political debate centers on the government's 50.1% controlling stake. A coalition of four right-leaning parties—the Conservative People's Party, Liberal Alliance, the Danish People's Party, and the Denmark Democrats—is advocating for a state exit plan. These groups, alongside the Liberals who have not opposed the idea, collectively hold approximately 40% of parliamentary seats. Reports from Finans suggest the proposed plan would involve the state first divesting strategically important infrastructure assets from the company before a full sale.

This discussion is particularly sensitive given recent history. Just last October, the Danish state contributed half of a DKK 60 billion capital increase to rescue the struggling wind power developer. The prospect of a state withdrawal so shortly after this substantial bailout presents significant political and financial complications.

However, current polling data indicates a potential shift in power. Surveys from DR suggest the five right-wing parties would secure only 74 of the 179 parliamentary seats, falling short of a majority. A left-leaning government, which has not supported a sale, appears more likely to form the next administration.

Operational Performance Shows Marked Improvement

Separate from the political debate, Ørsted's operational recovery is clear. The company reported full-year 2025 EBITDA of DKK 25.1 billion, landing within its guided range of DKK 24-27 billion. Net profit for the year reached DKK 3.2 billion.

Performance across business segments exceeded expectations. According to analysts at Jefferies, the offshore wind division outperformed by roughly 4%, driven by lower development costs and improved site performance. The onshore segment surpassed consensus estimates by an even wider margin of approximately 24%, largely due to gains from asset disposals. Offshore sites generated revenue of DKK 24.3 billion, supported by higher availability rates and the ramp-up of the Gode Wind 3 project.

The company's divestment program concluded ahead of schedule and yielded higher proceeds than anticipated. Ørsted agreed to sell its European onshore business to Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners for €1.44 billion, with completion expected in Q2 2026. Total transaction proceeds from the 2025–2026 program amount to around DKK 46 billion, significantly above the original DKK 35 billion target.

Financial Forecasts and Market Sentiment

Looking ahead to 2026, management anticipates EBITDA will exceed DKK 28 billion, with gross investments projected between DKK 50 and 55 billion. In a recent note, Berenberg raised its price target on Ørsted shares from DKK 140 to DKK 180 in late February, reiterating a "Buy" recommendation. The analysts cited the company's cautious resumption of long-term growth planning following a period of high volatility as a key positive.

In the immediate term, the ownership debate is expected to exert a greater influence on the share price than operational metrics, at least until the election on March 24. The company's next quarterly results are scheduled for release on May 6, 2026.