POET Technologies: A 185% Monthly Surge Meets a Skeptical Short Position

POET Technologies stock soars 185% in 30 days after Wolfpack Research short report backfires, fueled by Marvell-Celestial AI deal and production partner updates.

The optics specialist POET Technologies has delivered one of the most dramatic stock performances in recent memory, yet the rally is unfolding against a backdrop of intensifying bearish bets. The shares closed Friday at €12.86, a new 52-week high, after a 27% single-day gain that capped a week of extraordinary momentum. Over the past 30 days, the stock has surged roughly 185%, and since the start of 2025, it has more than doubled — a trajectory that stands 398% above its 52-week trough.

The Short-Seller Clash That Backfired

The rally’s ignition point came in mid-April, when Wolfpack Research published a blistering short report. The activist seller branded POET a stock promotion, pointing to just $2.3 million in cumulative revenue since 2020 across seven strategic pivots. Its central claim: the company’s status as a Passive Foreign Investment Company (PFIC) would create a tax nightmare for US shareholders.

The market’s response was emphatic. After an initial dip, the stock reversed sharply and never looked back. Over the past seven days alone, the shares added more than 76%.

Chief Financial Officer Thomas Mika pushed back forcefully, calling the tax warning baseless. “Since we are in a loss position, there is nothing for US shareholders to tax right now,” he said in an interview. Instead, he highlighted the operational progress: a $5 million production order for optical 800G engines and outstanding invoices from Celestial AI, a company recently acquired by Marvell Technology. Wolfpack countered that POET has a long history of missing milestones.

The Marvell Connection and Supply-Chain Speculation

Much of the recent buying frenzy traces back to Marvell Technology’s December acquisition of Celestial AI. POET and Celestial AI have been development partners since 2022, meaning Marvell effectively inherited POET as a supplier. Marvell itself provides networking hardware and optical interconnect solutions to hyperscalers including Amazon Web Services and Nvidia.

A Reuters report that Alphabet is in talks with Marvell to develop two new AI chips added further fuel. For traders, that was enough to position POET as a potential beneficiary — even though Marvell has not confirmed any order to POET, and the company’s revenue remains minimal.

Production Partners and the Malaysia Ramp

Beyond the Marvell speculation, POET is awaiting concrete feedback from two manufacturing partners. Mika said Foxconn and Luxshare are expected to provide responses on planned orders, with at least one reply anticipated soon. Both companies, according to POET’s annual report, are developing 800G high-speed optical modules for hyperscale data centers.

The company’s manufacturing facility in Malaysia is scheduled to begin volume production of light-source products in the second quarter of 2026, followed by 800G optical modules in the third quarter. A confirmed order from either Foxconn or Luxshare would represent a tangible catalyst — a sharp contrast to the speculative narrative driving the current rally. Management plans to deliver more than 30,000 optical engines this year.

The Numbers Behind the Rally

The gap between the stock’s trajectory and the underlying financials is stark. In the fourth quarter of 2025, POET reported a net loss of $42.7 million on revenue of just $341,000. The company’s cash position stands at $430 million, built through a $375 million capital raise, giving it a runway of several years at an estimated annual cash burn of $40 million to $50 million.

Meanwhile, the short interest has climbed from 6.1% in early February to 8.6%, near a record level — a clear signal that not all market participants are buying into the rally.

Structural Change on the Horizon

To address the PFIC classification permanently, POET’s board is planning to redomicile the company to the United States. The proposal will go to a shareholder vote at the annual general meeting on June 26, 2026. If approved, the move would eliminate the foreign investment company designation for future years and ease access for US investors.

Before that, the company reports first-quarter results on May 20, 2026. That release will test whether the $5 million order backlog has substance and whether the Malaysia production ramp is on schedule. For now, the market is betting on a future that has yet to arrive — and the shorts are betting against it.