Plug Power’s Rally Collides With a Cash-Countdown

Plug Power shares surge 360% in a year on AI-fueled hydrogen hopes, yet the company faces a $275M asset sale deadline and heavy cash burn, with short sellers circling.

Plug Power investors find themselves straddling two starkly different stories. One paints a company riding the artificial-intelligence wave, its stock surging more than 360% over the past twelve months on hopes that hydrogen fuel cells will power the next generation of data centres. The other warns of a ticking clock: the company burned through more than $150 million in operating cash during the first quarter alone and needs to close a $275 million asset sale before the end of May.

The share closed at €3.26 on Friday, up 0.23% on the day after a 14.2% leap the previous session. That two-day pop lifted the month-to-date gain to over 20% and pushed the year-to-date advance to roughly 72%. The catalyst? A sector-wide spark. Bloom Energy struck a partnership with AI cloud provider Nebius, and the market immediately began speculating that hydrogen-based power solutions could become critical for the hungry servers of hyperscale computing.

Plug Power has not announced any direct AI contract of its own. The rally is pure sentiment, which makes the stock as vulnerable to a pullback as it is exciting on the way up. The technical backdrop reflects that tension. The stock now trades 32% above its 50-day moving average and 57.5% above the 200-day line — clear signs of a strong recovery. Yet the relative strength index sits at 25.9, indicating unusually weak short-term momentum. The chart is sending conflicting signals.

The Liquidity Pivot

All of this plays out against a far less glamorous reality: Plug Power is racing to secure cash. Management expects roughly $275 million from selling project-related values, most critically the transfer of tax credits tied to the St. Gabriel joint venture. That deal alone should bring in about $39 million, and the deadline falls at the end of May. If it closes on time, it will ease the pressure on the company’s strained balance sheet. If it slips, the risk of new equity issuance — and dilution for existing shareholders — rises sharply.

Short sellers are circling. They control approximately 24% of the freely traded shares. A successful asset sale could force a squeeze as they scramble to cover. A failed deal could send the stock into a tailspin.

Margins Are Healing, but Profits Remain Distant

Operationally, the picture brightened slightly. First-quarter revenue reached $163.5 million, a 22% year-over-year increase. Gross margin improved from minus 55% a year ago to minus 13% — still deeply negative but moving in the right direction. CEO Jose Luis Crespo has focused on cost cuts and better fuel procurement. Still, the net loss widened to $245 million, inflated by accounting effects tied to convertible bonds.

Management aims for positive EBITDAS in the fourth quarter of 2026. Full profitability is not expected until late 2027 or early 2028. A key test comes on May 28, when CFO Paul Middleton and IR chief Roberto Friedlander present at the B. Craig-Hallum Annual Institutional Investor Conference. The market will be watching for concrete project milestones and credible margin guidance.

Barrow and the Pipeline

One near-term milestone has already landed. On May 20, Plug Power announced the final investment decision for the Barrow green hydrogen project in the UK, a 30-megawatt plant for which it will supply the electrolysers. The facility is expected to produce roughly 100 gigawatt-hours of green hydrogen annually for industrial use. For the company, the value goes beyond the single order — it demonstrates that large projects can move from announcement to execution.

The broader pipeline remains encouraging. Plug Power has installed over 320 megawatts of electrolyser capacity globally and carries an order backlog exceeding $8 billion. Large projects in Portugal and Spain underpin the long-term growth story.

Analysts remain split. B. Riley sees the stock at $5, while Wells Fargo pegs fair value at just $2.50. The consensus rating is Hold, with an average price target of $3.62 — slightly above the current level. Some analysts have raised targets to as high as $5 after the latest quarterly results.

For now, the stock is driven by two forces that rarely align: a speculative AI tailwind and a pressing need to prove that the business can generate cash without raising fresh equity. The outcome of the St. Gabriel tax-credit sale will likely dictate which story wins out.