Platinum’s Surge: Is the Rally Built to Last?

abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF US0032601066

The current platinum market presents a compelling narrative of tight fundamentals and robust demand, a dynamic clearly reflected in the performance of the abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT). With structural deficits projected for years to come, investors are questioning whether the metal's impressive advance has more room to run.

At the core of platinum's strength is a pronounced supply-demand imbalance. Contrary to some forecasts, the rising production of hybrid vehicles is acting as a significant demand catalyst. These vehicles require more platinum for their catalytic converters than traditional internal combustion engines.

On the supply side, persistent operational challenges in South African mines—the source of the majority of global platinum output—continue to constrain the market. The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts an average annual market deficit of 689,000 ounces through 2029. This fundamental scarcity has been a primary driver behind the price, which has more than doubled over the past year and trades near its December 2025 high.

Analyzing the Investment Vehicle

For investors seeking direct exposure, the PPLT ETF offers a straightforward approach by physically holding the metal in London vaults. This structure provides pure commodity exposure without the intricacies associated with futures contracts.

• Recent Returns: The fund has gained 133.67% over the last 12 months (as of January 9, 2026).
• Assets Under Management (AUM): Approximately $3.17 billion.
• Expense Ratio: 0.60%.

A primary alternative is the GraniteShares Platinum Trust (PLTM), which carries a slightly lower expense ratio of 0.50% but manages a significantly smaller fund. Both ETFs deliver nearly identical exposure to the physical metal's price movements.

Future Trajectory: Deficits in the Driver's Seat

The outlook remains tightly linked to these underlying market imbalances. Bank of America Securities has notably raised its 2026 price forecast to $2,450 per ounce. From a chart perspective, technical analysis suggests a breakout from a multi-year base formation, with the next potential price targets situated in the $2,170 to $2,300 range. Upcoming quarterly reports from major mining operators will serve as a crucial indicator for the stability of an already strained supply chain.