PayPal’s Dual Offensive: Data-Driven Ads and a Venmo-NFL Blitz

PayPal launches Ads ID for precise ad measurement and partners with NFL for Venmo push, as new CEO prepares first earnings report.

PayPal is no longer content to simply process payments. The company is charging into two new fronts simultaneously—one in digital advertising, the other in sports marketing—as it tries to reignite growth and prove its strategic pivot has legs. The moves come at a critical juncture, with a new CEO preparing to deliver his first quarterly report next week.

On the ad-tech side, PayPal has launched what it calls the “PayPal Ads ID,” a tool that taps into the company’s vast reservoir of transaction data. The pitch to advertisers is straightforward: instead of relying on probabilistic models to measure campaign effectiveness, the Ads ID links ad exposure directly to actual purchases. The system draws on aggregated data from more than 25 billion transactions, spanning over 400 million verified PayPal and Venmo accounts. By closing the loop between ad delivery and real-world spending, PayPal hopes to offer a level of precision that has become increasingly elusive as privacy regulations tighten and traditional tracking methods fade.

To accelerate adoption, PayPal has lined up four launch partners: Magnite, PubMatic, Rokt, and Taboola. These ad-tech heavyweights will integrate the Ads ID into their platforms from day one, giving the product immediate distribution across a broad swath of the digital advertising ecosystem. The company insists that data encryption and user controls remain intact, a nod to the regulatory scrutiny that now defines the industry.

But the ad play is only half the story. On the marketing front, PayPal is using its status as the NFL’s first official partner for person-to-person payments to drive a Venmo integration push. The timing coincides with the NFL Draft, and the company has signed five rookie endorsers to promote the platform. More importantly, the technical groundwork is now in place: users can transfer money directly between the main PayPal app and Venmo, effectively stitching together hundreds of millions of accounts across the two platforms. The goal is to boost cross-border transaction volume, which grew 7% last year across both services, and to capitalize on the NFL’s international games as a growth catalyst.

The architect of this dual strategy is Enrique Lores, who took over as CEO in early March. His mandate is to revive the core checkout business, which has been losing momentum, and to find new revenue streams beyond the traditional payment processing that has long defined the company. The market is watching closely, and the stakes are high.

On May 5, Lores will present his first quarterly earnings report. Analysts expect earnings per share of $1.27, a slight dip from the year-ago period. For the full year, the consensus estimate sits at just over $5 per share. The stock, currently trading around €42, has fallen roughly 15% since the start of the year and remains more than 37% below its 52-week high. The single-digit forward price-to-earnings ratio represents a steep discount to PayPal’s historical valuation, a fact that has drawn bargain hunters but also reflects deep uncertainty about the company’s trajectory.

Wall Street is divided. Bank of America recently raised its price target to $55, citing the potential of new revenue streams like the Ads ID. Truist Securities, by contrast, values the stock at $45, pointing to persistent headwinds from the macroeconomic environment and intense competition in the payments space.

For now, PayPal’s share price has managed a modest recovery, climbing back above its 50-day moving average of €39.47. But the real test comes next week, when Lores must convince investors that the ad-tech push and the Venmo-NFL alliance are more than just headline fodder—and that the company’s data advantage can translate into a durable competitive edge.