Partners Group’s Board Weighs Buybacks as Record Fundraising Collides With Fee Pressure

Partners Group raises $16B in H1 2026 but stock languishes near 52-week low amid performance fee slump, evergreen fund redemption caps, and analyst downgrades.

The Swiss private markets giant Partners Group finds itself in an unusual position: pulling in record amounts of fresh capital while its stock languishes near a 52-week low. With the shares trading at €742.20 — just over 8% above their June trough of €686.80 — the company’s board is preparing to debate whether to deploy some of that cash toward share repurchases, a move that would signal management believes its own equity is undervalued.

The tension between operational strength and market skepticism has defined Partners Group’s 2026. On one hand, the firm secured $16 billion in new client commitments during the first half, beating analyst expectations and surpassing last year’s comparable figure. On the other, the stock has shed nearly 30% since January and remains 38% below its August 2025 peak. The disconnect stems from a single, persistent worry: that the engine driving Partners Group’s profitability — performance fees — is sputtering.

Fee Warning Triggers a Wave of Estimate Cuts

Management’s mid-July trading update confirmed what many had feared. Performance fees, which historically contributed 25% to 40% of total revenue, are now expected to fall below 20%. That guidance prompted a flurry of downgrades from analysts, with profit estimates slashed by 10% to 22% on July 16 alone. Jefferies’ Thomas Mills had already trimmed his earnings forecasts by up to 9% ahead of the update and subsequently lowered his price target, while maintaining a “hold” rating. Barclays also cut its target but kept a more constructive stance.

The full first-half results, including a detailed profit and loss statement, won’t be released until September 1. Until then, the market is left to weigh the implications of a business model that is generating more assets under management — $186 billion, up from $174 billion a year earlier — but earning less on them.

The Evergreen Problem Won’t Go Away

Much of the investor unease traces back to Partners Group’s “evergreen” funds, semi-open-ended vehicles designed for retail and high-net-worth clients. In early June, the firm was forced to cap redemptions in a multibillion-dollar evergreen strategy after withdrawal requests hit 9.8% of net asset value in the second quarter. Without the cap, the company risked fire sales of underlying investments.

The episode reinforced doubts about the sustainability of Partners Group’s retail push. Net outflows from the evergreen platform reached $3.8 billion in the first half, and management expects the drag on net asset growth to persist, shaving 1 to 2 percentage points off the pace for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.

Compounding the pressure, short seller Grizzly published a critical report in late April alleging that up to 40% of the investments in Partners Group’s flagship evergreen fund were significantly overvalued. The company has rejected the claims, but the report added to a narrative that has kept the stock pinned below its 200-day moving average by nearly 23%.

Infrastructure Fundraising Offers a Counterpoint

Yet the operational picture is far from uniformly bleak. The same week the fee warning landed, Partners Group closed its fourth Direct Infrastructure program with total commitments exceeding $15 billion. Three days later, it announced the final close of its Infrastructure Secondaries vehicle at more than $5.5 billion. Together, the two closings underscore that institutional investors remain enthusiastic about the firm’s infrastructure strategies, even as they question the fee structure of its evergreen products.

The company also deployed $9 billion in new investments during the first half and realized an equal amount from exits, suggesting that the logjam in dealmaking that had worried some analysts is at least partially clearing. CEO David Layton has reaffirmed the full-year target for gross new money inflows of $26 billion to $32 billion.

A Boardroom Debate With Market Implications

For shareholders, the most immediate catalyst may come not from the September earnings report but from the board’s upcoming discussion on capital allocation. Layton has said he does not currently anticipate a change to the dividend policy — the 2025 dividend of 46.00 Swiss francs per share was approved at the May annual general meeting — but confirmed that the board will weigh the merits of share buybacks versus dividends at its next meeting.

A buyback program would mark a clear signal that management views the current valuation as too cheap. The stock’s relative strength index of 48.3 suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for either a breakout or a further slide depending on what the board decides.

Waiting for Clarity

The shares have shown tentative signs of life, closing at €744.00 on Tuesday, up 2.25% on the day and now 8.33% above the 52-week low. The 50-day moving average sits just 4.47% above the current price, hinting at a potential near-term floor.

But the broader trend remains bearish, and the stock is likely to stay range-bound until two questions are resolved: whether the September half-year report can surprise on the upside with performance fees, and whether the board’s capital allocation debate yields a concrete buyback commitment. Until then, Partners Group’s record fundraising haul will continue to compete for investor attention with the structural doubts that have driven its shares into the red.