Palantir’s Growth Engine Hits 85% as Conflicting Signals from Burry, Trump and the Chart Keep the Stock Treading Water

Palantir's Q1 revenue surged 84.7% to $1.63B, yet stock is down 38% from highs. Michael Burry holds short, Trump trades add noise, and sky-high valuation splits analysts.

Palantir’s latest quarterly results tell a story of accelerating momentum: revenue surged 84.7% to $1.63 billion, the US commercial segment exploded 133% to $595 million, and management raised its full-year growth forecast to 71%. Yet the stock closed last week at €111.02 — down 1.70% on the day, 22.42% for the year, and a staggering 38.32% below its November 2025 all-time high of €179.98. The disconnect between operational firepower and market pricing has seldom been starker, and it is being amplified by a cast of high-profile participants who cannot agree on the company’s trajectory.

The most closely watched bear is Michael Burry. The “Big Short” investor’s Scion Asset Management has disclosed put options on 5 million Palantir shares with a notional value of roughly $912 million, according to regulatory filings. However, the exact status of that bet has become a source of confusion. Some reports suggest Burry halved his short position, while social-media chatter claims he closed it entirely. Burry himself poured cold water on any notion of a retreat: in a June 2 Substack post he described Palantir as standing at a “crossroads” and identified a topping pattern on the chart, explicitly stating his short remained unchanged. The stock dropped 6.55% the following day. Complicating matters, Scion deregistered with the SEC in November 2025 and plans to liquidate by year-end, rendering the usual 13F filings unreliable for tracking the fund’s current stance.

Adding to the noise, President Donald Trump has been zigzagging in and out of Palantir shares. Ethics disclosures show he sold up to $5 million worth on February 10, 2026, only to repurchase multiple times — including at least seven separate buys in March alone. The latest filing from the U.S. Office of Government Ethics indicates his investment accounts sold between $854,000 and $4.6 million in the first quarter, though third-party managers handle those trades. Despite the sales, Trump still holds at least $1 million in Palantir alongside larger positions in Apple and Nvidia.

The technical picture offers little relief. The stock sits 3.27% below its 50-day moving average of €114.78 and 16.90% below the 200-day average of €133.60. The 14-day relative strength index at 48.8 is neutral — neither oversold nor flashing fresh momentum. Annualized 30-day volatility above 53% underscores how unresolved the debate remains. Palantir’s market capitalisation hovers near €282 billion, a valuation that has split analysts sharply. D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria upgraded the stock to Buy with a €175 target, arguing Palantir is growing twice as fast as peers like Snowflake and Shopify. Wolfe Research maintains a Neutral rating, pointing to a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 176 and a price-to-sales multiple of nearly 72 — multiples far above the software sector average of around 29.

Against this backdrop, CEO Alex Karp has taken an unusually aggressive stance on pricing. In a July 1 CNBC appearance he blasted the token-based billing models of OpenAI and Anthropic as “completely crazy,” accusing them of unilaterally extracting customer data value. The comment sparked debate across the industry, drawing reactions from former White House AI adviser David Sacks and Microsoft’s Satya Nadella. Palantir followed up with a 15-point white paper titled “Institutional Sovereignty in the Age of AI” and deepened its collaboration with Nvidia on open-source Nemotron-based AI systems for government clients.

Yet the same revenue surge that emboldens Karp also exposes risk. Palantir’s $440 million contract with Britain’s National Health Service comes up for renewal in early 2027, and the broader price sensitivity of corporate AI spending was illustrated by Uber capping employee AI-tool expenses at $1,500 per month. In the near term, the stock has at least recovered 18.99% from its 52-week low of €93.30 set on June 26 — but with two camps of heavyweights pulling in opposite directions and a valuation that leaves little room for error, the market remains a bystander rather than a referee.