Palantir’s Earnings Eve: A Steel Giant’s AI Bet and a $300 Million USDA Deal Set the Stage

Palantir heads into May 4 earnings with a $300M USDA deal, a Cleveland-Cliffs contract, and US commercial momentum, despite shares trading 35% below peak.

With shares trading roughly 35% below their 2024 peak and nearly 19% lower year-to-date, Palantir Technologies heads into its May 4 earnings report carrying both fresh commercial momentum and the weight of sky-high expectations. The stock, hovering around €117 in European trading and well under its 200-day moving average, has been punished by valuation concerns in an increasingly crowded AI market — even as the underlying business continues to fire on multiple cylinders.

Cleveland-Cliffs Signs On for Three Years

Just days before the quarterly release, Palantir secured a multiyear deal with Cleveland-Cliffs, one of North America’s largest flat-rolled steel producers. The three-year contract will see the steelmaker deploy Palantir’s AI platform for production planning and order management, marking a significant expansion into heavy industry. The move follows Boeing’s earlier adoption of the software for its defense and aerospace programs, signaling a broader trend where industrial giants are locking in multiyear commitments rather than dipping their toes with short trials.

USDA Adds $300 Million to the Government Pipeline

On April 22, the US Department of Agriculture awarded Palantir a $300 million framework agreement to implement the “One Farmer, One File” program — a digitalization initiative aimed at modernizing agricultural data management and farm security. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called the deal evidence that Palantir is successfully diversifying its government business beyond traditional defense contracts. He also flagged potential work with the Federal Aviation Administration, which is receiving billions for upgrading aging air traffic control infrastructure.

Wall Street’s Q1 Scorecard

The consensus estimate calls for first-quarter revenue of approximately $1.54 billion, representing a 74% year-over-year jump. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to hit $0.28, more than double the $0.13 reported in Q1 2025. Of the 21 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it a Buy, five say Hold, and two recommend Sell.

Wedbush’s Ives reiterated his Outperform rating and $230 price target, arguing that the consensus view on revenue is too conservative. He pointed to the US commercial business, which grew 137% in the prior quarter to $507 million, as a potential upside driver. Baird’s William Power, also Outperform-rated with a $200 target, expects Palantir to post its 11th consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth. He projects free cash flow could climb to $7.5 billion by 2027.

The US Commercial Engine

The most closely watched metric on Monday will be the US commercial segment. If it maintains its torrid pace, management is likely to raise the full-year revenue guidance of roughly $7.19 billion. Government revenue is expected to come in around $764 million, up nearly 57% from a year ago.

A European Headwind, But a Minor One

Not all news was positive. Germany’s defense ministry has indicated it has no immediate plans to award contracts to Palantir, a small setback for the company’s international ambitions. However, the non-US business has historically played a secondary role in Palantir’s growth story, and analysts largely view the European disappointment as manageable.

The Valuation Tightrope

The stock’s decline from its highs appears driven less by operational weakness than by valuation anxiety in an AI sector that has become increasingly crowded. The tension is clear: fundamentals point upward, but the multiple leaves almost no room for error. If Palantir misses on any of the three key metrics — revenue, margin, or the full-year outlook — the shares could face another sharp leg down. A strong report, however, could finally break the stock’s months-long slide.