Palantir's $11 Million Vote of Confidence Amid a 17% Plunge

Michael Burry's post on Anthropic's growth sparked a selloff, questioning Palantir's model. ARK Invest reversed course with an $11M buy, as Trump praised its military tech.

A single deleted social media post from a prominent investor triggered a four-day selloff that erased roughly 17% from Palantir's stock price last week. The catalyst was a question posed by Michael Burry of Scion Capital, who wondered if the explosive growth of AI startup Anthropic renders Palantir's enterprise business model obsolete. This dramatic slide, the stock's worst weekly performance in over a year, has left shares down nearly 24% year-to-date, creating a stark contrast with recent high-profile endorsements.

The core of investor anxiety stems from Anthropic's rapid ascent. Burry highlighted that Anthropic scaled its annual recurring revenue from $9 billion to $30 billion in mere months, a feat that took Palantir two decades to reach $5 billion in annual sales. More concerning for Palantir bulls is Anthropic's "Managed Agents" suite, a product that could allow enterprise clients to bypass the very integration layer upon which Palantir's platform business is built. The fear is a structural shift where corporate AI budgets flow directly to foundation model providers rather than through middleware platforms.

This bearish sentiment manifested in heavy trading, with Friday's volume hitting 115 million shares—more than double the three-month average—confirming the sell-off was substantial. Technically, the stock broke decisively below its key moving averages.

Yet, against this wave of doubt, a notable buyer emerged. On Friday, Cathie Wood's ARK Invest executed a clear reversal in strategy, purchasing 85,485 Palantir shares across five funds in a move worth approximately $11 million. This acquisition, which included 46,455 shares for the flagship ARKK ETF, marks a significant pivot after ARK systematically sold off about 9.8 million Palantir shares between the third quarter of 2024 and the fourth quarter of 2025.

Palantir also found an unlikely booster in former President Donald Trump, who praised the company's "great warfighting capabilities" in a Truth Social post that explicitly mentioned its stock ticker. The post drew criticism from ethics watchdog CREW, which suggested it could be an attempt to bolster the stock of a political supporter. The company has sponsored events for the Trump administration and contributed to White House renovations.

The geopolitical relevance of Palantir's technology provides context for such comments. Reports indicate its Maven Smart System AI platform is actively deployed in US-Israeli military operations against Iran, processing satellite data, drone footage, and intelligence to prioritize targets. The original Maven contract was valued at up to $480 million in 2024 and expanded to roughly $1.3 billion in 2025. A long-term framework agreement with the US Army allows for procurements worth up to $10 billion over a decade.

Financially, Palantir's own metrics tell a story of robust growth that seems at odds with its stock performance. Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue hit $1.41 billion, a 70% year-over-year increase. Its US commercial business soared 137% to $507 million in that quarter, and for full-year 2025, commercial US revenue jumped 109% to $1.5 billion. Management forecasts 2026 revenue between $7.18 billion and $7.2 billion, representing growth of about 61%.

The central conflict for investors is valuation. Even after the steep decline, Palantir shares trade at a towering 108 to 109 times expected 2026 earnings, making it one of the most expensive stocks in the S&P 500. It also trades at about 47 times expected sales. Bulls point to accelerating profitability, with analysts forecasting earnings per share to surge 75% to $1.31 for 2026. The company has a history of beating consensus estimates, outperforming by an average of 15% over the past six quarters.

All eyes now turn to Palantir's first-quarter 2026 report, due after the US market closes on May 4. The company itself has guided for Q1 revenue between $1.532 billion and $1.536 billion and adjusted operating income of $870 to $874 million. Analysts expect a profit of $0.29 per share. Whether these results can alleviate concerns about competitive threats and justify the premium multiple will determine if the stock's recent plunge was a buying opportunity or the beginning of a deeper re-rating.