Palantir: Institutional Buying Meets Insider Selling as Growth Story Battles Valuation

Palantir shares stall as institutional investors add stakes while insiders sell, with defense catalysts from Ondas and Ukraine but valuation and competition weigh.

The narrative around Palantir remains as split as the share price. On one hand, institutional investors are quietly building positions, lured by rapid revenue growth and strategic contracts in defense and commercial AI. On the other, executive insiders are trimming holdings, and the stock's lofty valuation continues to give even sympathetic analysts pause. The result is a stalemate that left the equity barely changed on Friday.

Regulatory filings revealed that SkyOak Wealth boosted its Palantir stake by an eye-catching 169.5%, while New York Life Investment Management added 1.5% to hold 313,222 shares. Institutional ownership now sits at roughly 45.65% of the company — a sign that deep-pocketed buyers see the current price as an entry point. Yet the very same week, executive Stephen Andrew Cohen sold 327,088 shares, reinforcing the caution that hangs over the stock.

That caution is rooted in the numbers. Palantir closed Friday at €115.38, up 0.70% on the day but still 19% lower since the start of 2025. The shares trade well below their 200-day moving average of about €140 and 7.06% under the 50-day line. From the 52-week high of €179.86, the slide has been steep, leaving limited buffer to the year's lows.

Partner Lift and Defense Demand

A bright spot came from ecosystem partner Ondas Holdings, which reported a surge in revenue to $50.1 million on Thursday. Ondas highlighted its use of Palantir's AIP platform to control autonomous flight missions, reinforcing the notion that the software is becoming the operational backbone for next-generation defense and industrial applications. That network effect helped steady the stock into the weekend.

The defense angle is further strengthened by Ukraine's intention to deepen its use of Palantir's AI capabilities in combat operations. For a company that has long positioned itself at the intersection of government security and enterprise software, such endorsements carry weight beyond geopolitics — they validate the platform's mission-critical role.

Analyst Divergence Widens

The wall of worry for Palantir is not about demand but about price. Freedom Broker reiterated a "Buy" rating and raised its price target to $230, pointing to accelerating commercial adoption in the U.S. market. HSBC took the opposite view, downgrading to "Hold" and slashing its target from $205 to $151, citing rising competition from easier-to-use AI coding tools.

The valuation math is unforgiving. With a market cap of approximately $321 billion and a forward price-to-earnings multiple well above 150, the company needs to keep delivering eye-popping growth just to justify the current level. First-quarter revenue did rise 85%, and the commercial backlog stood at $4.92 billion, but the market is demanding flawless execution.

What Comes Next

The upcoming annual general meeting on June 3 will be closely watched. Management is expected to outline international expansion plans, but recent reports that the German military may prioritize domestic software providers add pressure to show progress outside the U.S. Separately, an investor initiative is pushing for an independent audit of human rights risks tied to government contracts — a perennial issue that keeps ethical scrutiny alive.

On the technical front, the stock appears to be forming a bottom, with some chartists pointing to a falling wedge pattern and a bullish divergence on the RSI. Yet the 14-day RSI of 50.8 sits in neutral territory, not oversold. For a sustained turnaround, Palantir needs to reclaim its short-term moving averages and demonstrate that the commercial engine can fire as hard as the government one. Until then, the tug-of-war between institutional conviction and valuation anxiety will continue.