Original-Research: OHB SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: OHB SE - from NuWays AG



16.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to OHB SE



     Company Name:                OHB SE
     ISIN:                        DE0005936124



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 340
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Simon Keller



Stars align for a stronger order outlook



We view OHB's share price weakness as unjustified given the further
strengthening we expect in its order outlook. The company has secured a
nearly EUR 1bn order for IRIS², Sentinel is moving towards a final contract
and we now see greater order potential from SATCOMBw 4. Q3 should show
continued growth, with the main programme-driven earnings uplift still
ahead. Upcoming contract awards should act as key share price catalysts.



IRIS²: key award secured, with further upside. OHB secured a nearly EUR 1bn
order in Q3. The contract covers the development and production of 18 medium
Earth orbit (MEO) satellite platforms for IRIS², the EU's secure, sovereign
communications network for government and commercial users. The award
reinforces OHB's position as one of Europe's leading MEO satellite
manufacturers, extending its Galileo track record into secure
communications. We expect first revenues in Q4, with annual sales peaking
around 2028-29 as the programme moves from development into production
(eNuW). Poland's plan to fund six additional MEO satellites offers scope for
an OHB follow-on order worth c. EUR 200m (eNuW).



Sentinel: next major ESA award moves closer. OHB and ESA have signed a
letter of intent for Sentinel-3 Next Generation Topography, marking progress
towards a final contract in Q4. The Copernicus mission will improve
sea-level and ice monitoring, reinforcing OHB's position in European Earth
observation. We estimate a potential order intake of c. EUR 650m (eNuW).



SATCOMBw 4: EUR 5-7bn order potential. The planned low Earth orbit
constellation will provide the Bundeswehr with secure, sovereign
connectivity. The EUR 10bn investment figure cited during the Bundestag's
September defence budget debate is incrementally positive, supporting our
assumption at the upper end of the previously discussed EUR 8-10bn range.
Industry discussions have led us to assign a larger proportion of the
programme value to OHB's anticipated satellite and associated
ground-infrastructure work. We therefore raise our estimate of OHB's share
to 50-70% (previously: 30-50%), implying potential order intake of EUR 5-7bn
in H1 2027 (eNuW). Confirmation of the contract value and OHB's allocation
should act as a share price catalyst and be accompanied by a first earnings
contribution in 2027e (eNuW).



RFA: new CEO ahead of maiden flight. Former HENSOLDT Sensors COO Alexander
Dahm joined as CEO, bringing industrialisation expertise. ESA's 23 September
update still listed launch-pad hot-fire testing as outstanding. Winter
weather at SaxaVord increases the risk of a launch slipping into 2027
(eNuW). A delay would defer a potential catalyst, but should leave our
estimates and investment case unchanged given the well-known uncertainty
around launch timing and success.



Q3 preview: continued growth ahead of the larger ramp-up. Total output is
expected to rise 16% yoy to EUR 347m, driven by continued conversion of the
existing backlog, which stood at c. EUR 3.3bn at end-H1 and is seen to climb
to c. EUR 4.2bn after 9M (eNuW). We forecast EBITDA to increase by 16% yoy to
EUR 39m (eCons: EUR 37m), implying an 11.2% margin (+0.1pp yoy).
Reiterate BUY, PT EUR 340, based on DCF.



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https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: [e-mail]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2416972 16.10.2026 CET/CEST