Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG (von NuWays AG): BUY
Veröffentlicht am: 05.08.2026 um 09:00 Uhr | dpa.de
Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG
05.08.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG
Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN: AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 58
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Simon Keller
Q2 preview: guidance leaves ample room for upside, chg.
Flughafen Wien will release its H1 report on 19 August. We expect resilient
Q2 figures and see the conservative FY26 guidance paving the way for
positive surprises in H2. Here is what to expect:
Q2 sales look set to decline 3.2% yoy to EUR 289m (eNuW). Group traffic was
broadly flat at -0.4% yoy, with the mix shifting to Malta +15.6% and Kosice
+45%, while Vienna declined 6.5% yoy, reflecting the expected
low-cost-carrier reductions as well as Middle-East traffic below pre-crisis
levels. Moreover, Q2 should see the full impact of the reduced airport
charge scheme. Following Covid-19, this reflects a return to a stable
long-term formula, which should broadly track inflation in the coming years.
Hence pricing is expected to again return to a tailwind in 2027.
Despite the softer top line, Q2 EBITDA is seen flat at EUR 130.5m (eNuW),
implying a 1.5pp margin improvement to a strong 45.2%. Three drivers should
stand out: (1) the group's cost efficiency programme, most likely resulting
in declining headcount, (2) the non-recurrence of prior year one-offs
(damages and environmental provisions) and (3) continued operating leverage
in fast growing Malta.
The FY guidance implies an overly cautious H2, in our view. Management
targets approx. 41.5m PAX, EUR 1,050m sales and EUR 415m EBITDA. Held against
our H1 estimates (20.0m PAX, EUR 528.6m sales, EUR 218.4m EBITDA), this leaves
an implied H2 PAX decline of 9.7% yoy (21.5m), a sales decline of 13.7% yoy
(EUR 521m) and underlying EBITDA deterioration of 23.4% yoy (EUR 196.6m; adj.
for EUR 55.9m one-off costs in Q4 2025). The magnitude of the decline looks
difficult to reconcile with the traffic and margin trajectory expected in
Q2, in our view. We hence raise our FY26 estimates to EUR 1,075m sales and EUR
430m EBITDA (c.4% above guidance, 40.0% margin). Even these numbers still
embed a marked H2 slowdown, with implied H2 sales down 9.6% yoy and
underlying H2 EBITDA down 17.6% yoy. We therefore continue to regard our own
estimates as conservative. A guidance hike in H2 looks like a matter of time
(eNuW), in line with management's typically prudent planning.
Politics add an incremental positive: the federal government earmarks EUR 30m
p.a. for the aviation sector in its 2027/28 double budget, with the
allocation to be decided by end of September. The industry appears to prefer
usage of the funds for a cut of the flight tax. No game changer, but any
relief would strengthen Vienna's competitiveness.
All in all, the investment case remains fully intact: FWAG combines
infrastructure grade earnings quality with structural growth, strict cost
discipline and debt free funding of investments (EUR 330m in 2026e), leaving
ample room for attractive dividends (c. 3.6% yield). With increased
estimates and the guidance upside as a potential catalyst, the risk/reward
remains compelling.
BUY, new PT EUR 58 (old: EUR 57), based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=44f694953e3dc689a4796d453fd8d66a
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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